If Joe Biden the politician has had a long and prolific career, his personal life and that of his family have been marked by numerous dramas.
Another chapter in the family saga came to a conclusion this week with Hunter Biden’s guilty verdict.
A verdict that will change little
So, the son of 46e president faces a prison sentence. Several observers wonder if the judgment could affect Joe Biden’s chances of victory.
I’m not one of those. Just as Donald Trump’s conviction in New York had very little effect on the polls because voters already know the Republican candidate very well, Hunter Biden’s drug addiction and financial problems are well known.
- Listen to the American political column with Professor Luc Laliberté via QUB :
I potentially see a very slight advantage for the Democrat. Even if there are doubts about his state of health, Joe Biden inspires respect because of the misfortunes that affect those close to him and thanks to his ability to demonstrate empathy.
After confirming that he was not going to resort to a presidential pardon to save his son from a misstep, he spoke of his pride in seeing him overcome his problems. Many in the United States recognize themselves in the Biden couple who offer their son unconditional love and support.
What is the point of persisting on a theme that can only help to highlight the human qualities of Joe Biden? Donald Trump was also rather reserved in his comments after the announcement of the verdict.
In addition, it is worth remembering, Hunter Biden is not a candidate for any elective office. Can the father be blamed for the son’s problems?
Everything is possible
Five months before the election, the polls, without being unanimous or particularly positive, point in the direction of a slight improvement in the prospects of victory for Joe Biden.
On the fallout from Hunter Biden’s troubles in court, an Ipsos/Reuter poll recently indicated that voters (54%) consider that the president behaves like a very good father.
Another survey, that of Emerson College, goes in the direction of what I affirmed above, namely that, for a strong majority of voters, the conviction of the son will not influence the result of the election .
The best news this week undoubtedly comes from the site FiveThirtyEight which specializes in forecasting electoral results. In their most recent simulations, it is the outgoing president who most often wins.
After weeks of losing, even the smallest of winning margins helps to reenergize the Democratic troops.
Quote of the week
“As I mentioned last week, I am the president, but I am also a father. Jill and I love our son and are proud of the man he is today. […] As I also mentioned last week, I will continue to respect the legal process as Hunter considers appealing his case.”
– Joe Biden, when announcing his son’s guilty verdict on June 11.
Photo of the week
Photograph from June 11. Jill Biden, Hunter Biden and his wife Melissa Cohen Hunter, as they leave court.
Lie detector: essentially true
“If the Affordable Care Act [Affordable Care Act] If canceled, more than a hundred million Americans would lose protections linked to pre-existing conditions. Information taken from a Joe Biden campaign advertisement.
It is difficult to precisely estimate the number of Americans who are affected by pre-existing conditions, but according to the website PolitiFact (which relies on data from the Department of Health and Human Services), even if the definition of pre-existing conditions may vary, it is estimated that between 54 and 135 million people are affected.
Number of the week (FiveThirtyEight): 50%
The famous site FiveThirtyEight, affiliated with ABC News, has been producing results simulations since the 2008 election. This week, Joe Biden’s chances of victory were estimated at 50%. The odds of a Donald Trump victory were 49% while a tie scenario only had a 1% chance (June 14 forecast).
