The return of Donald Trump to the White House is causing a lot of ink to flow, with questions among many allies of the United States. In Europe but also in Asia-Pacific, because of the character and vision considered isolationist, transactional, even mercantile, of the American president.
Donald Trump's “come back” provokes diverse reactions in the Asia-Pacific region. Anthony Albanese, the Australian Prime Minister, said he was confident in the maintenance of the Aukus alliance which unites Canberra with London and Washington. It is true that this military alliance is coupled with a major arms contract of which the United States is one of the major suppliers. Because as in economic relations, the 47e American president, considered isolationist, would have a very transactional vision of alliances.
As with NATO and Europe, with it, the American umbrella over the region would not be free. Paul Nadeau is an assistant professor of international affairs and political science at Temple University's Japan campus in Tokyo. “That doesn't mean he's necessarily going to abandon America's allies in Asia. But he's going to want a little more,” he believes, on the part of the partners, in terms of military financing.
“And he's going to want to shake things up in the hopes of getting additional concessions… It's not going to be a multilateral framework like that of the Biden administration and the Harris administration, he says. This will be a series of one-on-one conversations with different partner countries: 'What can you do for us? See what we're already doing for you. Pay or we leave.' And I think it's this fundamental principle that will guide its relations, whether in Ukraine, Taiwan or China.”
Taiwan, which Donald Trump asked to pay more for its protection by the United States against China. On site, some experts want to be optimistic but realistic. Like George Yin, professor at National Chengchi University. “Compared to China, American power is comparatively in declinehe declares. I'm not saying the United States isn't a superpower, but China is growing in power.”
“So through this aspect of power competition, the competition between the United States and China is not about democratic values. Rather, it will be a competition for power, he asks. To win the competition, it will be about winning Taiwan. Therefore, they will reduce their support for Ukraine and provide support for Taiwan. But on the other hand, they also calculate, for Taiwan. If Taiwan is very valuable to them, they will support Taiwan even more. But if, after calculation, Taiwan's value is not that attractive, they will adjust their support for Taiwan.”
Taiwan is banking on the continuation of the trade dispute between Beijing and Washington. With an annoyed Trump who wants to tax more imports from the Middle Kingdom. However, some fear that the island will pay the price of an economic agreement between the two great powers. China seems rather to be making eyes at the 47th American president, according to the words of Shu Jueting, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce .
“China is ready to strengthen communication, expand cooperation and resolve differences with the United States, based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, she announced. “We hope to promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of economic and trade relations between China and the United States, benefiting the two countries and the whole world.”
In the meantime, and more generally, Donald Trump's protectionism is causing concern almost everywhere in the Asia-Pacific, even in Japan which has close ties with the United States. Seita Hakoda, a student at Temple University's Japanese campus, doesn't hide his anxiety. “Trump said he would impose very high tariffs on products from foreign countries, imports. So I think Japan's export-based industries may face a very difficult situation.”
Donald Trump's political orientations are not the only ones in question. In addition to his isolationism, even his mercantilism, observers and officials from countries in the Asia-Pacific region also fear his temperament. Paul Nadeau thus returns to the ultra-sensitive issue of Taiwan. “One thing that makes me nervous about Trump on the Taiwan Strait, advances the teacher, it is his tendency towards unpredictability. Its tendency to be a kind of chaotic actor in a situation that is finely balanced, that requires a deep reading of very subtle signals between Taiwan, the United States and China….”
And to insist: “It's a very subtle form of communication between the parties involved. And I don't know if Donald Trump can understand the dialogue that's taking place. And if he wants to have a totally different dialogue, I think that could have truly disastrous consequences.”
In short, the fear of an unpredictable, even volatile or irrational Trump, who could behave like an elephant in a china shop. The next four years appear, for the moment, to be marked by great uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region. Like elsewhere in the world…
A summary of Bruno Sat, Emmanuel Urtado, Philippe Champenois
NC la 1ère collected the analysis of Gaël Lagadec, professor of economics at the university. An interview conducted by Camille Mosnier and Brice Bachon.
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