During his electoral campaign, the Republican increased his intimidation, particularly towards his political “enemies”. Declarations that he will, in theory, have the power to put into effect.
“I will govern with one motto: promises made, promises kept.” During his victory speech from Mar-a-Lago (Florida), on the night of Tuesday November 5 to Wednesday November 6, Donald Trump set the tone for his future second term in the White House: he intends to implement his program countryside. The assertion, banal for a candidate who has just won the presidential election, nevertheless worries Democrats and several liberal media, such as CNN and Vox. The republican is “a danger for democracy”judges for example the American site, the day after the election.
The warning, hammered out by Kamala Harris throughout the campaign, raises a question: what will Donald Trump really do during this second term? Beyond the program, will he follow through on the numerous threats he has made against his political adversaries? Over the past year, the billionaire has, for example, promised to sue Joe Biden, or to use the army against those he describes as “enemies from within”. “We now know that we should not take Donald Trump at his word, but we must take him seriously”estimates Nadia E. Brown, professor of public policy at Georgetown University.
“Donald Trump says a lot of things that may seem outlandish, but his statements usually have some truth to them.”
Nadia E. Brown, political scientistat franceinfo
“It is difficult to know what he will really do, because many of his statements go beyond the usual framework of political life. We do not know if he intends to do it, or if they are simple provocations”continues the expert. During his first term, between 2016 and 2020, “Donald Trump did not follow through on everything he said during the campaign”recalls Hans Noel, professor of political science at Georgetown University. His call to “lock up” Hillary Clinton, for example, was never followed by action. “This time, the threats against his political opponents are more precise, notes the political scientist, however. He considers that he has been attacked by enemies, and that he must defend himself.
There is another major difference with his first term. “At the time, certain measures did not succeed because some of the Republican representatives in Congress did not support them, or because the Democrats had control of the House of Representatives”between 2018 and 2020, explains Hans Noel. When he is inaugurated in January 2025, Donald Trump will have a freer hand. Democrats can still hope to control the House of Representatives, and thus limit the president's scope of action. But the Republican Party already has 211 elected officials, according to partial results Friday morning, approaching the 218 seats needed to hold the majority. The conservatives already have a majority in the Senate, with at least 53 seats out of 100 (two seats remain to be allocated).
“The American president has great freedom in the exercise of his power. One of the safeguards is Congress: from Bush to Biden, elected officials have blocked certain initiatives of the president.”
Hans Noel, political scientistat franceinfo
With a Congress with a conservative majority in both houses, Donald Trump would be all the freer in his actions as “the Republican Party has evolved a lot since 2016″underlines the political scientist. “Those who were denouncing Trump internally have all been pushed out. If you look at the Republicans who campaigned for Kamala Harris, they are no longer members of the party, or they no longer have office.” Clearly, they no longer have any means of pressure on Donald Trump.
Nikki Haley, who faced the billionaire during the party primaries before rallying to his cause, ventured to criticize him in the final days of the campaign, reports Axios. But “she no longer has a governorship and, if she wants a political future within the party, she will probably fall into line”anticipated Hans Noel.
Even without full control of Congress, Donald Trump will have plenty of room to maneuver. Several American heads of state before him “exceeded and redefined the framework of their power”recalls Hans Noel. “Immigration is an example: it is up to Congress to legislate on the right to asylum, border control and the financing of these measures, he explains. But the president can change the framework of action of the border police or sign decrees toughening the conditions of entry into the territory. That's what Joe Biden did in June, when he temporarily closed the border with Mexico to prevent illegal migrants from accessing the asylum system.
Within the future Trump cabinet, loyalty to the president will also be essential. At the start of his first term, officials organized “the resistance” at the White House, working behind the scenes to counter the “misguided impulses” of the billionaire. This time, Donald Trump has already announced that he “would surround himself with more loyal people, more in agreement with his line”observe Nadia E. Brown.
The president-elect also announced his intention to “to turn” many employees of federal agencies, to replace them with officials chosen by him. Political appointments which would undermine the independence of these services. Donald Trump “tried to distance himself from 'Project 2025'”action plan of an ultraconservative group preparing the Republican's return to the White House, notes Hans Noel. “But this document clearly explains the objective of recruiting and training people to occupy key positions in the federal administration, to help it carry out its wishes.”
The choice of JD Vance as running mate also illustrates Donald Trump's desire to surround himself only with docile supporters. As CNN notes, the future vice-president refused to publicly admit that the billionaire had lost the election in 2020. He also suggested that he would act differently from Mike Pence, who had certified Joe Biden's victory despite Donald Trump's demands to block the democratic process.
During the billionaire's second term in the White House, there will be “much fewer safeguards”summarizes Hans Noel. The political scientist, however, cites the judicial power. Eight years ago, court decisions blocked certain measures by Donald Trump. The “Muslim ban”, prohibiting entry into the country to nationals of several countries with a Muslim majority, had thus been declared contrary to the law by the American courts.
“Many moderate or progressive lawyers and activists are worried about the election results. They will not fail to challenge possible discriminatory measures in court.”
Hans Noel, political scientistat franceinfo
“A lot of what Trump says he wants to do on his first day in office will be illegal or unworkable.”abounds Steve Vladeck, a constitutionalist interviewed by the Washington Post. “But even what is illegal could be enforced for a while, and he could really succeed in moving the law in his direction.”
Especially since Donald Trump, during his first term, appointed numerous conservative judges to the federal courts. “These magistrates do not constitute the entire judicial system”, and the Republicans could suffer setbacks in the courts, tempers Nadia E. Brown. Even the Supreme Court, where Donald Trump has installed a conservative majority, might not always go his way. “The President of the Court wants to preserve the legitimacy of the institution. He generally aligns himself with other conservatives, but could sometimes adopt a more moderate approach, to ensure that the Supreme Court remains an operational branch of power”, advances the political scientist.
Other counter-powers also exist. “States led by Democrats will resist Donald Trump’s policies, and many decisions are made at this level”recalls Hans Noel. The political scientist also cites the press, “although she was sometimes reluctant to criticize him during the campaign.” “A majority of Americans will not accept that their freedoms and rights are overturned, they will mobilize if democracy slips too far back”anticipates Nadia E. Brown. Everything will therefore come down to one question, according to Hans Noel: “Will Donald Trump try to do everything Democrats fear?”
