In Europe, the far-right wave is contained

The unprecedented breakthrough of the populist right in France, with the added scores of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and the “Reconquest! » by Eric Zemmour, who will get 37% of the votes cast in the European elections, should not create any illusions. Neither is the real but relatively modest breakthrough of the German Alternative für Deutschland party.

Because one of the results of this European consultation is that the far right on a continental scale is certainly progressing, but much more modestly than expected. It even experienced some marked declines in Sweden, in Finland (where the Finns Party fell from 14% to 8%), in Hungary (where Viktor Orban’s ruling Fidesz fell from 53% to 44%).

In the big capitals, like Rome, Madrid or Warsaw, we are far from thunderclap which resounded in France, with a dominant extreme right, the humiliation of Emmanuel Macron’s party and his decision to dissolve the National Assembly.

Two groups of the radical right

Let us recall that in the outgoing Parliament, there were two groupings of the movement which we call variously, depending on the case, populist, ultranationalist, far right, radical righteven neofascist Or postfascist. Extremely diverse groups, ranging from social or identity conservatives, to those nostalgic (few in number) for fascism or Nazism, to supporters (more numerous) of a reduction in immigration, to authoritarians and libertarians.

Not to mention a fierce geopolitical division, between friends from Moscow (Orban the Hungarian, theAfD German) and friends of Ukraine (Meloni the Italian, Kaczynski the Pole).

Between 2019 and 2024, there was in the European Parliament the group Identity and democracy (ID, dominated by the French National Rally and in which the party appeared – but no longer appears – AfD). And then there was the group European conservatives and reformists (Spanish Vox, Polish PiS, Austrian Freedom Party…).

These two groups, in the outgoing Parliament, together occupied some 16.5% of the seats. After the elections of June 9, 2024, they find themselves at 18% – a figure to which we can add the score ofAfD (kicked out of group ID), the Hungarian Fidesz, also an orphan, and a few small ultra groups, unaffiliated and considered unsocial.

Failing to find a group that wants to receive them, these deputies will have to sit as independents. By adding up all these beautiful people, the movement will perhaps reach 19% or 20% of the seats.

However, certain pre-election projections predicted up to 25%. With a quarter of the deputies from this general movement, and assuming that they could coordinate among themselves, the parliamentary dynamic could have been disrupted in Brussels.

We were apparently not there on the evening of June 9, with the caveat that European politics is so abundant (voters in many countries had the choice between 20, even 30 partisan lists!) that in the category various rightwe could always have a few surprises.

Elections nationalized

But these Europeans are also elections nationalized, where we do not vote on European debates and where political discourse, as well as its media treatment, are sometimes closer to the parish than to major supranational or geopolitical questions. They are seen as full-scale surveys and horse races (followed maniacally by daily surveys), while waiting for the real elections (legislative or presidential elections).

On this note, the leaders of two major European countries, France and Germany, suffered humiliating slaps on Sunday, which could have significant national consequences.

In France, the elections turned into a referendum on the government of President Emmanuel Macron, whose European list (Need for Europe) lost 2 to 1 (31% to 15%) against the National Rally of Marine Le Pen.

Immediately after the announcement of the results, President Macron took the extremely risky bet of dissolving the National Assembly, perhaps hoping – not without reason – that the European elections would be for many voters a let off steam the results of which can vary greatly compared to national elections. But the slope will be very difficult to recover, and the rise in support for Le Pen seems structural, against a backdrop of a fragmented political landscape in France.

In Poland, Donald Tusk’s centrist party, the Civic Coalition, won by 37% against 35% for the former ruling party (Law and Justice, by its acronym PiS). Those in power in Germany have no reason to be satisfied. Those in power in France have reason to be terribly sad, said Tusk, Polish prime minister and former president of the European Council, after seeing the results elsewhere in Europe.

On the other hand, he added, Poland showed that democracy, honesty and Europe triumph. His centrist pro-European party, the Civic Coalition (KO), came first and will have 21 MEPs.

In Germany: the humiliation of Olaf Scholz

In Germany, the Christian Democratic party CDU-CSU, which dominates in Brussels the deputation of the European People’s Party (classic right, 26% at European level), obtained 30% of the votes, exceeding its score of 2019. In the second rank – and this is unprecedented in this country with a tragic past – the far-right party AfD comes in second place with a little over 15%, beating the social democrats of Olaf Scholz (SPD) at 14%: a catastrophic result and a humiliation for the German chancellor.

This is the worst score ever recorded by this party in a European election. In 2019, he had already suffered a historic defeat with 16% of the vote. This is a very bitter result for usdeclared Kevin Kuehnert, secretary general of the SPDadding that his party would have to look into the reasons for the weakness of the mobilization of its supporters.

Example of the gap between European ballots, with lower participation (51% Sunday on average for the continent, but 65% in Germany), and national ballots: the SPD obtained 16% in the 2019 European elections, 26% in the 2021 federal election (with a participation rate of 77%), then 14% in the 2024 European elections.

As for the result of theAfD, even if it represents a gain of 4.5 points compared to 2019, this party had risen, at the end of 2023, to 22% in the national polls. A series of demonstrations, at the beginning of 2024, against the far right in various large cities in Germany, plus a few verbal slips (including that of a prominent candidate who dared to relativize the wrongs of the SS during the Second World War) led to a sharp drop in its support since the start of 2024.

Stability more than upheaval

In total, the European Parliament is sliding slightly to the right, the radical component of which will gain two, perhaps three more points.

The conservatives of the European People’s Party (26%) and the social democrats (19%) are holding steady or even slightly improving their scores. The centrist liberals, and especially the greens, are losing a lot of votes. Environmentalists suffered this year from a strong popular backlash against the Green Deal : many Europeans are irritated by the price to pay for go greenwith costly standards aimed, for example, at making European buildings more efficient and eliminating the gasoline engine within ten years.

The anger of farmers, in 2023, was also anger against these standards.

Environmentalists had increased, between 2014 and 2019, from 7% to 10% at the European level. During the legislature which is ending, they were at the forefront, allied with the liberals and the socialists, in the adoption of the Green Deal. In 2024, they pay for this and fall back to 7%.

But overall, and subject to more detailed analysis with all the results in hand, the 2024 European elections seem to show more stability than upheaval. There great surge of the far right announced will have been only a wavelet.