At the end of an American campaign with many twists and turns, the results of the American presidential election look closer than ever. Former US President and Democratic candidate Donald Trump and Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris are neck and neck. So much so that eyes are riveted on the swing states these pivotal states likely to fall into the camp of both Republicans and Democrats.
Among them, Pennsylvania – 19 electors up for grabs who are decisive over the 93 electors from uncertain states – where the candidates have increased their trips to try to convince until the end. But the first results could be misleading. Here are the keys to properly reading the results of this State on which the eyes of the world will be glued.
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The “red mirage”
Pennsylvania could again this year present what is called the « mirage rouge » (red being the color of the Republicans) during which the first counts would show Donald Trump well in the lead. Among the reasons: the counting of postal votes and the distribution of partisan votes.
Ballot counting in larger, more densely populated cities, such as Philadelphia, takes longer than rural areas. However, it is in rural areas that voters traditionally vote Republican, unlike large cities which favor Democrats.
Votes from rural areas will therefore be returned more quickly, creating this effect of « mirage rouge »as explained Forbes .
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The “blue slide”
This Republican lead should fade after the counting of postal and advance votes, which are the means of voting favored by Democratic voters. This is called “blue slip”.
In Pennsylvania, the counting of postal votes begins from the opening of polling stations, i.e. from this Tuesday morning (local time). The counting of postal votes could therefore take longer.
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In 2020, Pennsylvania took several days to release its final results, with postal voting having been more recommended due to Covid. Donald Trump's initial lead had notably pushed the Republican candidate to prematurely declare his victory, but the counting of the rest of the votes had marked the Democrats' return to grace over the days. A turnaround which notably fueled the Republican candidate's accusations of false fraud.
