For 40 years, historian Allan Lichtman, the Nostradamus electoral forecasts, announces with disconcerting precision the future presidents of the United States. And this time again, he predicted who will be the winner of the election in 2024.
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The 77-year-old professor announced who Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will be elected 47e President of the United States, according to his mathematical method which he considers infallible.
With a result of 8 keys won out of 13, Kamala Harris will be the next president and the first woman to enter the White House.
13 keys to determining the winner
Lichtman has designed the system and measurements he relies on for his election predictions for more than three decades with the help of Moscow earthquake specialist and mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
His method is nicknamed the “13 Keys to the White House” and it uses 13 statements, true or false, rooted in historical analysis of the state of the country, parties and candidates to determine who will win in an election .
Allan Lichtman
Photo Pedro Ugarte / AFP
Allan Lichtman has been wrong only one time in ten since 1984, during the 2000 presidential race when he predicted Al Gore’s victory over George W. Bush.
In 2016, he predicted the victory of Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton.
He is one of the few who put Trump winning in 2016, but losing in 2020.
Nevertheless, the 2024 election is unprecedented: the Democrats’ initial candidate and current president withdrew in favor of his vice-president, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump has been targeted by two assassination attempts since the start of the countryside.
Two analysts disagree
A feud between two of America’s leading election prediction experts, Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver, came to the fore on Election Day.
The two men have clashed for several weeks on social networks over the validity, accuracy and precision of their respective methods.
In September, Silver assessed that Lichtman was “misusing” the “13 keys” to project upcoming election results, and that his system actually favored Trump.
Lichtman countered that Silver, whose background is in economics, was “neither a historian nor a political scientist” and that he had been wrong in the past in his predictions.
Nate Silver gained national recognition in 2008 when his statistical method correctly predicted the election outcome in 49 of 50 states, according to USA Today.
Its model has since predicted the winner of the 2012 and 2020 US presidential races.
While Lichtman’s system relies on established patterns from past elections to predict future presidential votes, Silver’s provides insight into how the views of the American electorate change over time.
