A little over two weeks before the American presidential election, the outcome of the vote is still uncertain. The polls in key states remain extremely close, while barbs and attacks have multiplied between the candidates, underlines Corentin Sellin, history teacher in preparatory classes, columnist on American politics for Jours.fr, guest on 8h30 franceinfo, from Monday October 21, 2024. He responded to Salhia Brakhlia and Jérôme Chapuis.
The “closest election in a quarter of a century”
15 days before the election, the results look uncertain. The election will be “undoubtedly the closest presidential election in at least a quarter of a century”estimates Corentin Sellin, historian specializing in American politics. “All polls in key states are within a point of difference between the two candidates on average”he specifies, adding that“we are really blind, we must be careful not to make any predictions”, as to the outcome of the November 5 vote.
“The polls have not always been reliable in certain key states in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin”he emphasizes. “In the states, even pollsters are having more and more difficulty contacting voters, where many, particularly Trumpists, refuse to respond to them. Pollsters themselves are very cautious about their results.”
A campaign crazier and more violent than ever
While the barbs and attacks have multiplied between the candidates, this campaign sounds like one of the most violent in recent history, with Donald Trump’s usual attacks on Kamala Harris, who nevertheless responded well to him. “Kamala Harris does not want to repeat the mistake of Hilary Clinton in 2016, who looked down on Trump and his supporters and did not want to get into this game, he explains. Kamala Harris has the desire to return the blows , to show that she can go there.” While Donald Trump is in trouble with the law, nothing seems to have any influence on him, which is explained by Corentin Sellin.
“He led his supporters into a narrative, a narrative that the attack on the Capitol was just the demonstration of patriots who wanted to save democracy, that he wanted to defend his rights by rejecting the election results, believes Corentin Sellin. In doing so, he increased his hold on his supporters, and on his party by excluding all those who do not agree with this narrative,” explains this specialist in the United States.
“Donald Trump assumes his proximity to Vladimir Putin”
One of the themes of this campaign is the risk of Russian interference, and perhaps even Donald Trump’s links with Russia. A documentary on this subject was broadcast on France 5 on Sunday October 20. Bob Woodward, journalist who broke the Watergate affair, says Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin still talk. “The problem is that it remains only a hypothesis, says Corentin Sellin.
“There was a major judicial investigation, which led to two conclusions, the first that Valdimir Putin interfered in the election to elect Donald Trump, but which did not make it possible to affirm that there was collusion. concludes this specialist from the United States.
Watch the full interview here:
