In less than three weeks, the US elections will take place. In the latest polls, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are now neck and neck. Who seems to have the advantage?
In the latest polls for the US presidential election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are at 48%. But what is generating a lot of comment is the dynamic that seems to be reversing. Donald Trump gains 5% compared to September in the same poll while Kamala Harris loses 1%.
Not only is this dynamic found at the national level, but it is also found in certain key states where we feel that the Democrat is losing ground. In the state of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan. Kamala Harris, who was well in the lead, is losing ground and the gap is narrowing to barely 1% with Donald Trump.
Not only is its dynamic lost compared to this summer, but it is not replenishing the votes that are normally acquired by it, those of minorities. 78% of black Americans are ready to vote for her. 60% of Latinos are ready to vote for her. These are the lowest numbers for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years.
How can we explain it?
There are several reasons. First a certain distrust of Kamala Harris’ political and economic program, and then a certain misogyny. It is no coincidence that, for example, last week, Barack Obama came to his Black brothers telling them and lecturing them: Please don’t tell me you don’t want to vote for Kamala Harris because she’s a woman.‘
And so Kamala Harris understood that she had to go and speak to this community. She notably met stars like former basketball star Magic Johnson, who gave her support, who is a true icon of the black community. But she also gave interviews, notably with an influential presenter from Detroit, explaining the opportunities for black Americans.
Towards a Hillary Clinton-style scenario?
That’s actually the problem and that’s what’s missing, Black Americans, Latinos, who don’t want to vote for Kamala Harris but who find that Donald Trump is a pretty decent choice. For what ? Because they come from more educated backgrounds or from the lower middle class and they are sensitive to the arguments of the fight against illegal immigration or even certain tax promises.
As a result, we have this question this evening: will Kamala Harris experience the same thing as Hillary Clinton in 2016? At the time, she was leading the race for months and months and then all of a sudden, in October, she lost her momentum.
US elections 2024 Kamala Harris donald trump
