UPDATE ON THE SITUATION – The Ukrainian president, who began a European tour yesterday, is received in Paris this Thursday by Emmanuel Macron.
The German research institute Kiel Institute warned on Thursday October 10 of a possible drop in Western aid to Ukraine, in the event that Donald Trump returns to the White House and Germany scales back.
Two months after kyiv launched its offensive on Kursk, Ukrainian soldiers are questioning their leaders’ strategy as Moscow’s troops advance into Ukrainian territory. This Thursday, President Volodymyr Zelensky, in the middle of a European tour, is received at the Élysée by Emmanuel Macron. Le Figaro takes stock of the situation.
“Ukraine could face a large aid gap,” says the Kiel Institute
“Starting next year, Ukraine could face a significant aid gap”writes the institute in a press release, which lists the military, financial and humanitarian aid promised and delivered to Ukraine since the Russian invasion of February 24, 2022. The possible return of Donald Trump to the White House ‘could block future aid plans in Congress’warns the Kiel Institute, which further notes that “Germany recently announced that it would reduce its budget allocation by 50%” and that “other European donors could follow”.
According to the research institute’s projections, military and financial aid would amount to 59 and 54 billion euros respectively in 2025 if Western donors maintained their level of aid. Conversely, this aid would fall by half, to 29 and 27 billion euros, without new American aid and if European donors aligned with Germany. This drop could be offset by other financing levers under discussion, such as military contributions “coordinated by NATO” or “loans” relying on “Russian frozen assets”.
Ces “Recently discussed financing mechanisms are not particularly important. If approved, they would offer valuable help, but could only be palliatives, believes Pietro Bomprezzi of the Kiel Institute. These funds would not fully replace the regular bilateral aid that Ukraine needs.”
As of August 30, 2024, bilateral aid promised to Ukraine since the start of the war amounts to 397 billion euros, including 153.8 billion in military aid, 221 billion in financial aid and 22.3 billion humanitarian aid, according to the latest figures from the Kiel Institute. The leading donors are the European Union (240.9 billion), the United States (100.2) and the United Kingdom (13.9).
In terms of military aid alone, the EU and the US are neck and neck, with around €66 billion pledged by each. But American aid is arriving more quickly in Ukraine, since 87% of US pledges have already been allocated to specific weapons and equipment, compared to only 66% of EU pledges.
Two months after the Kursk operation, Ukrainian soldiers wonder
When Ukraine launched its surprise offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk, its soldiers were proud, even euphoric. Two months later, they are questioning this strategy, while Moscow’s troops are advancing on Ukrainian territory. “I don’t understand what the next plan is”admits to AFP Serguiï, a Ukrainian soldier participating in the operation.
The attack was launched on August 6, a humiliation for the Kremlin which sees part of its territory occupied by a foreign army for the first time since the Second World War. It took Moscow by surprise, strengthening the morale of the Ukrainians, exhausted by almost three years of Russian invasion. kyiv claims to control nearly a thousand Russian square kilometers.
Despite losses “very important”, “The Russian army is in an offensive” Who “accelerates” et “we cannot say that the Kursk offensive achieved its objectives”estimates Yohann Michel, military expert and research fellow at the Institute of Strategy and Defense Studies in Lyon (France). She only “showed that something is possible with the Ukrainian armed forces and that it is possible to return to Russia without causing the apocalypse”he adds. For Serguiï, the Ukrainian soldier returning from Kursk, the gains were nevertheless worth it, making it possible to create “a beautiful propaganda image showing that Ukraine can conquer and carry out offensive operations”.
Volodymyr Zelensky received in Paris by Emmanuel Macron
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be received Thursday at 3:00 p.m. at the Élysée by his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron for a “bilateral interview”announced the French presidency.
“This meeting will be an opportunity for the President of the Republic to reaffirm France’s determination to continue to provide, over the long term and with all of its partners, unfailing support to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. »specified the Élysée in a press release.
After pleading from Croatia for the EU to welcome “all democratic nations of Europe”the President of Ukraine is embarking on a European tour since he will also travel by Saturday to London to meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, to Rome to discuss with the Pope and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, then in Berlin to meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
