For this Q3 2024, 14 scores were noted: Azerbaijan, Benin, Bulgaria, Chile, Hungary, Iceland, Montenegro, Morocco, Namibia, Uzbekistan, Paraguay, Tajikistan, Czech Republic and Trinidad and Tobago.
This increase in Morocco’s rating makes it, along with Botswana, the safest countries in Africa for business.
In terms of growth forecasts, Allianz Trade expects average growth of +3% per year in 2024-2025 and a reduced budget deficit to less than -4% of GDP in 2025.
Globally, growth will remain stable (but not exceptional) at +2.8% until 2026, in line with the long-term average.
As for GDP growth in emerging economies (excluding China), it will be generally higher than the pre-pandemic average, namely +3.6% in 2024 and +3.9% in 2025 and 2026. South and Southeast Asia in particular is expected to outperform, supported by robust exports and more favorable domestic conditions.
Africa and the Middle East are expected to see higher growth rates in the coming years, emerging Europe is gradually recovering, while Latin America presents a more mixed picture.
Monetary policy divergence is also evident there, with Brazil expected to raise its policy rate, deviating from the global trend of monetary easing, according to the Allianz Trade report.
Nevertheless, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses a significant threat to regional stability, according to Allianz Trade. As the conflict continues, neighboring countries are experiencing an economic slowdown and the risk of further escalation remains a concern.
