Why Vladimir Putin is the big winner of the Gaza war

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Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, April 25, 2024. ALEXANDER KAZAKOV / AP

VSt has been a quarter of a century since Vladimir Putin took advantage of the United States’ errors in the Middle East to methodically rebuild his country’s power in this region, but also in Europe. The Russian president thus, from 2001, justified his ferocious repression of Chechen nationalism by associating it with George W. Bush’s “global war on terror”.

Ten years later, he launched his own “war on terror” against the Syrian revolution with the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran. When Barack Obama refused, in 2013, to strike Bashar Al-Assad, despite the chemical bombings of Damascus, the master of the Kremlin understood that he could, six months later, go on the offensive against Ukraine, first by annexing Crimea, then fueling the war in Donbass.

When Putin decided to intervene directly in Syria in 2015, he deepened collaboration with Iran, particularly in terms of drones, a collaboration which was valuable to him in 2022, during the general invasion of Ukraine. The war techniques developed and made commonplace in Syria are also devastating in Ukraine.

Neutralize Netanyahu without discouraging Iran

Yet Western leaders continued to treat Europe and the Middle East as two very distinct theaters, even though Putin knew so skillfully how to play on both sides.

Washington did not even react to the trap that ended up closing on Israel’s northern border: Benjamin Netanyahu was indeed convinced that only Moscow could stem Tehran’s interventionism in Syria, before realizing, but too later, that Israel had to act directly and was now dependent on Russian approval to carry out such strikes. This unprecedented vulnerability of Israel explains, since 2022, its absence of any military support for Ukraine, despite pressing requests from kyiv in the face of Russian waves of bombing of civilian infrastructure by Iranian-made drones.

However, this did not prevent Volodymyr Zelensky from displaying unwavering solidarity with Israel on October 7, 2023, after the Hamas attacks. But Netanyahu then refused to welcome him, in order, once again, not to upset Putin. The Israeli Prime Minister also did not dissuade his “Christian Zionist” allies in the American Congress from continuing to block aid to Ukraine, while voting for exceptional assistance to Israel. The Russian army greatly benefited from this six-month blockade, intensifying its pressure on Ukraine on all fronts.

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