The situation appears critical on the Ukrainian front. After breaking through kyiv’s defense lines and conquering the village of Ocheretyne, west of Avdiivka, around ten days ago, the Russian army is seeking to exploit the situation to the maximum. It therefore always progresses in depth but also manages to broaden its breakthrough. Several villages have fallen in recent days: Novobakhmutivka, Solovove, Semenivka and Berdichyi. Others are directly threatened by the Russians: Arkhanhelske just north of Ocheretyne, Sokil further west, and Umanske to the south.
This sudden breakthrough is already having serious consequences for the Ukrainian army. With no reserves available to counter the Russian army, it was forced to bring together divisions located elsewhere on the front line. Which has the consequence of weakening other sectors where the Russians benefit. This is the case at Robotyne, symbol of the counter-offensive of summer 2023, partly resumed on Wednesday May 1st. The Ukrainian army must also face this Russian offensive while American aid, approved eight days ago, has not yet reached the front line. The shortage of ammunition therefore still penalizes the Ukrainian artillery.
Huge material losses
It is in this difficult context that Emmanuel Macron said this Thursday he was ready to send ground troops to Ukraine. “ If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there was a Ukrainian request – which is not the case today – we should legitimately ask ourselves the question “, the French president told The Economist.
But all is not rosy for the Russian army. If it advances, it is, as is often the case, at the cost of terrible human and material losses @Escortert, observer of the conflict on https://twitter.com/escortert/status/1785690559161442811, including 105 tanks. “ I would like to remind you that the replacement capacity by the Russian defense industry is estimated at around 525/month. The question of continuing the offensive at this pace is already raised », he notes.
An analysis confirmed by the Russian defense minister. In a press release on Telegram, Sergei Shoigu judges “ necessary to increase the volume and quality of weapons and military equipment supplied to the troops (…) in order to maintain the required pace of the offensive and ensure the strengthening of the combat force for further actions. » The Russian army is thus operating at maximum capacity and it is difficult to anticipate its next movements.
“Such a maneuver would destabilize the entire system”
If the Russian army still has the means to push its offensive, it could take several directions depending on the objective sought by Vladimir Putin. “ It is likely that in the short term, the Russians will push due west towards the Vovotcha River where the Ukrainians have apparently set up their next stopping line », observed General Olivier Kempf last weekend. But the Russian army could also be tempted by another maneuver.
For Olivier Kempf, “ the capture of Ocheretyne leads to that of Keramik (to the north-east) and therefore opens the rear of NiuYork », a poorly defended Ukrainian town. “ The Russians therefore have the opportunity to push due north » and even reach the village of Kostantynivka. “ This town holds the rear of Chasiv Yar », specifies the general. Chasiv Yar which has resisted Russian assaults and carpet bombs for weeks. If the Russians were to threaten Kostantynivka from the south, “ such a maneuver would destabilize the entire system » of the Ukrainian army which would be forced to withdraw. This could perhaps be the end of Ukrainian Donbass.
