Africa is at a crossroads in its fight against the devastating effects of climate change. The quarterly report from Gallagher Re, specialist and world leader in insurance brokerage and risk management, on natural disasters highlights the disproportionate repercussions suffered by the African continent. Despite relatively moderate global economic losses in the first quarter of 2024, estimated at $43 billion, Africa continues to suffer the consequences of extreme weather events.
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In total, direct economic losses linked to natural disasters in Africa alone during the first quarter of 2024 are estimated at around $1 billion. This amount, although provisional, already represents almost double the ten-year average for the same period. Insurance companies had to pay out more than $375 million to compensate insured losses, 20% more than the usual norm.
According to the Gallagher Re report, this surge in costs is largely explained by the continuing influence of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which has created conditions conducive to extreme events across the continent. The most costly episodes were the floods in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which claimed 238 lives, as well as cyclones Belal and Gamane, in the Indian Ocean and Madagascar respectively.
Illustration of the damage from Cyclone Belal in Mauritius, in January 2024.. Intish Howlodhur via REUTERS
But drought is the main concern for many African countries. Precipitation anomalies illustrate the scale of the problem, with 80 to 90% of the continent’s surface recording rainfall deficits of up to -100% compared to seasonal norms. This situation threatens the food security, access to water and livelihoods of millions of people. Furthermore, this situation could worsen with the predicted shift towards the La Niña phase in the coming months.
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The most affected regions are southern Africa, already hit by a severe drought in 2023, as well as the Horn of Africa. In Zimbabwe and Zambia, maize harvests have fallen drastically, threatening the food security of millions of people. In Zambia, drought was declared a national emergency after nearly a million hectares of maize crops failed. In Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, the combination of drought and armed conflict is plunging part of the population into acute food insecurity. Water shortages have also caused the death of many livestock.
At the same time, floods continue to wreak havoc. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, floods claimed 238 lives in January, while in South Africa they caused considerable economic damage. In Kenya, floods in Nairobi at the end of March claimed the lives of 10 people. These events highlight the growing vulnerability of populations and infrastructure to climatic hazards.
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Tropical cyclones represent an additional threat. Cyclone Belal, which hit Reunion Island in January with record force, resulted in more than $100 million in insured damages. In Madagascar, Cyclone Gamane killed 19 people and displaced 20,000 people at the end of March.
Historical trends indicate that the continent bears a disproportionate share of the economic costs associated with natural disasters. This situation raises questions about the capacity of African insurance markets to absorb future shocks.
Weather phenomena occurring in Africa during the 1st quarter of 2024
| Flood/Tropical cyclone | Date | Country | Economic losses | Number of deaths | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flood | January 1-17 | Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) | not determined | 238 | |
| Flood | January 10-20 | South Africa | 10 million dollars | 13 | |
| Flood | March 24-26 | Kenya (Nairobi) | not determined | 10 | |
| Cyclone Belal | January 14-16 | Reunion, Mauritius | $275 million | 4 | |
| Cyclone Gamane | March 27-29 | Madagascar | not determined | 19 |
Early warning systems, emergency plans, adaptation measures
Faced with this developing food and humanitarian crisis, experts are sounding the alarm. For some, African countries must urgently strengthen their capacities to adapt to climate change, by investing massively in programs for sustainable water resources management and agricultural resilience. Others insist on the need to rethink development models, recommending that it is essential to accelerate the transition to a green, low-carbon economy, less dependent on fossil fuels and more resilient to climate shocks.
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To meet these challenges, a multidimensional approach is necessary, they believe. According to them, it is imperative to strengthen the resilience of communities and infrastructure to natural disasters, by investing in early warning systems, emergency plans and adaptation measures, recommend other experts. At the same time, the development of robust insurance and reinsurance markets capable of supporting reconstruction efforts is essential.
Finally, ambitious and coordinated climate policies at the continental level are essential to limit the future impacts of climate change. This involves promoting renewable energies, preserving natural ecosystems and implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies adapted to local realities.
The key role of the insurance sector
The insurance industry also has a crucial role to play in proactively managing these growing risks. African companies must develop innovative parametric insurance products, coupled with early warning systems, to enable rapid deployment of aid in the event of a disaster, other experts recommend.
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However, these solutions require massive investments in technical capacity building and the collection of reliable data on local climate hazards.
Ultimately, this new burst of extreme weather events in the first quarter of 2024 illustrates the urgency of fundamentally rethinking development and risk management strategies in Africa. Concerted and ambitious action by governments, financial institutions and the private sector will be essential to meet this major challenge and preserve the continent’s economic and social gains.
