COTidienne | Cereals – Fairly sharp drop in wheat prices on the Chicago futures market

THE prix of the main wheat futures contracts fell quite significantly this Monday, November 11, a public holiday but open for marketswith declines greater than.5 cts$/bushel for the four closest deadlines and also the most worked on the CBOT. The decline, however, attenuated on the more distant terms. On Friday, US wheat prices closed slightly higher. The dynamics were more contrasted on Euronext with a very small increase in prices this Monday on the December deadline but a small drop on the March, May and July terms (the most worked). Prices consolidated on Friday. In corn, we also recorded a drop in prices, but very moderate, this Monday, on the CBOT as on Euronext. Prices had increased slightly on Friday across the Atlantic and had consolidated in Europe. On the French physical markets, prices increased slightly for soft wheat and barley fodder but remained stable in durum wheat and corn between November 7 and 11.

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In wheatthe markets continue to integrate the first consequences of the election of Donald Trump as the 47th president of UNITED STATESparticularly with strong trading activity around the dollar. They also digested the report Wasde on global agricultural supply and demand published by theUSDA Friday, with few significantly important elements concerning the production of wheat in the world, revised with a very small increase. Still at the global level, revision of very small decline in importsof the exports and ending stocks ; small increase in domestic uses.
The US session was driven by technical sales and investment fund sales.
THE rains fallen in the United States favor the growth of plants and the markets are closely observing the sowing conditions in Europein Russia and in Ukraine. Same for theArgentine and theAustralia but side harvest.
In Franchttps://www.reussir.fr/ladepeche/ble eTHE semis take advantage of the lull in the weather on the rain side to move forward but they take place in complex conditions (short intervention window, difficulty in working the soil, etc.). Winter wheat sowing was 62% complete as of November 4, in line with last year’s pace.
AHDB analysts at United Kingdom are rather slightly bearish in terms of price development over the next two weeks but neutral for the period of the next two to six months.

Side butthe Wasde report on global agricultural supply and demand published by the USDA on Friday noted almost 2 Mt of production worldwide with an increase in domestic uses of more than 6Mt. Result: the ending stocks at the end of the campaign are revised downwards but less than expected due to a still significant carryover stock from the previous campaign.
In Francethe grain corn harvest progressed significantly from one week to the next.
AHDB analysts at United Kingdom are rather neutral in terms of price developments both in the short term and in the medium term.

Side oilprices “dropped on Monday, still weighed down by the new Chinese stimulus measures considered disappointing, while the gaz natural resources jumped after the closure of platforms due to the passage of Hurricane Rafael,” according to AFP. On Friday, prices had already fallen. L’OPEC must publish its monthly report this week.

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Fundamentals:

• World, wheat, production : estimated at 794.73 Mt in November compared to 794.08 Mt in October (source: USDA/Wasde);
• Argentina, wheat, production : estimated at 17.5 Mt in November compared to 18 Mt in October (source: USDA/Wasde);
• EU, wheat, production : estimated at 122.6 Mt in November compared to 123 Mt in October (source: USDA/Wasde);
• Russia, wheat, production : estimated at 81.5 Mt in November compared to 82 Mt in October (source: USDA/Wasde);
• United States, Canada, Australia, China, India, Ukraine, wheat, production : estimated identical to the October forecasts (source: USDA/Wasde);
• France, corn, harvest : as of November 4, 2024, 58% of areas harvested (+20 points in one week) compared to 93% last year and 89% on average over five years (source: FranceAgriMer).

Commerce international :

• United States, corn, sale : 200,480 t to an unknown destination, for delivery in 2024-2025 (source: USDA).