A lost vote of confidence, a dissolution of parliament, early elections, a weakened head of government… Welcome, not to France, but to Germany.
After the dismissal of his Minister of Finance leading to the implosion of his fragile government coalition, on November 6, 2024, Chancellor Olaf Scholz requested a vote of confidence from German deputies on December 16, 2024. A vote that he lost, forcing the President of the Republic Frank-Walter Steinmeier to set early legislative elections for February 23, 2025.
Our European neighbor is therefore also going through a period of instability. With another similarity: the rise of the far right in the political game. The latter is embodied by the AfD party, led by Alice Weidel. He is credited with 20% voting intention. A record for the German far right which, just ten years ago, was far from playing in the big leagues.
In 2015, the refugee crisis was a springboard
“Since 1949, and until the 2010s, the far right has remained very marginal in Germany, confides Martin Baloge, researcher in political science at the Catholic University of Lille and author of the book Politics in Germany (La Découverte editions). On the other hand, when it arrived in the Bundestag, the German parliament, it did so massively, with almost 90 deputies, becoming the first opposition party. »
How to explain it? “In 2015, at the time of the refugee crisis, Angela Merkel made an extremely courageous and ambitious decision, that of welcoming around a million refugees from the Middle East, in particular from Syria. And like any ambitious measure, it is divisive and generates a lot of tension. And there is no one on the right who manages to speak critically about this decision. There is a call for air, and the AfD is taking advantage of it to capture an electorate who has no one else to express themselves. »
Ten years later, the AfD, which was originally a party “liberal right-wing academics, focused on European issues”, has become an anti-immigration, anti-Islam movement, with a radical discourse, which continues to gain momentum. “At the moment, we are observing a reactionary and xenophobic movement in the United States and Europe. We see this clearly in France, Italy, Austria. This context is favorable to the AfD”continues Martin Baloge Without forgetting that the current coalition is unpopular, accused of being disconnected from the population.
Nevertheless, the rise of the extreme right in Germany may have surprised more than one specialist. “Germany is a bit of an exception, advances Martin Baloge. It is a country which has lived through a tragic history, on which it has carried out memory work. Within the German constitution lies the idea that it must be protected from its enemies, and the AfD can be seen as an enemy in that it threatens certain fundamental principles of the German constitution. From this point of view, Germany has managed to counter far-right movements for decades, in particular thanks to a culture of compromise which brings together fairly powerful parties. »
Sanitary cord
The culture of compromise, precisely, allows us to understand how the German political system works, unlike ours. Grand coalitions are commonplace in Germany. The one that has just exploded was made up of the Social Democrats (SPD, the chancellor’s party), the Greens and the Liberals (FDP, the party of the sacked minister).
The CDU, the Christian right, party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, could regain power thanks to early elections, being credited with 30% of voting intentions in the polls. The German culture of compromise will work again in this context to thwart the ambitions of the far right, despite its popularity.
“There is no chance that the AfD will govern with other parties, confirms Martin Balogeand in particular with the CDU, there will be an ideological cordon santé”. Unlike the National Rally in France, which has undertaken a process of normalization, the AfD is not there yet and is playing on its radicalism.
“The question that arises is not so much whether the AfD will govern with other parties, but whether other parties will take up its ideas,” observes Martin Baloge. He thus compares the situation with the mandate of Nicolas Sarkozy, who had taken up ideas from the FN in order to counter it. The CDU candidate Friedrich Merz, holding a very right-wing line, “gives assurances to the AfD electorate, to keep them in the fold of the CDU”.
-But if the extreme one day succeeded, as in Austria where it is about to enter the government, in gaining power, it is the European Union which would particularly suffer. “This is a scenario that is not likely to happen. But yes, it would be catastrophic. »
While a campaign meeting of the AFD party with candidate for chancellor Alice Weidel is being held on Saturday January 25 in Halle-sur-Saale, Germany, a large nighttime demonstration against the far right is planned in Berlin.
landmarks
The AfD program in broad terms
The AfD program is “extremely radical”, describes Martin Baloge. For the 2025 elections, the party, xenophobic and reactionary which vigorously opposes Islam, advocates the end of immigration. “Germany is an aging country that needs foreign labor. One wonders how the AfD can solve this equation. »
On the economic side, the AfD proposes a neoliberal program. “A program that wants to reduce, or even completely eliminate, certain taxes, particularly those that affect businesses and the upper classes. It is the middle and working classes who should bear the additional burdens which would weigh on the German budget, because at the same time, the AFD wants to ensure a retirement rate of around 70%, which is very high. »
Elon Musk’s support
Like many other European far-right political parties, the AfD is supported by billionaire Elon Musk, close to Donald Trump, who does not hesitate to praise him on X, the social network of which he is the owner. Thursday January 9, he even chatted live with Alice Weidel, the boss of the AfD, for an hour and a quarter, providing unexpected visibility to the latter.
“We can quite imagine that X, through its algorithms, could benefit the AfD, which is one of the most active parties on social networks and which achieves its best scores among young people. »
Because Elon Musk and the AfD have a “common enemy” according to Martin Baloge: the European Union. An EU whose laws and standards represent a threat to its economic interests. Elon Musk therefore does not hesitate to wet his shirt.
An influence to be taken seriously, especially since “Musk could have been content to make the X effect work, but he goes further by supporting the AfD, offering it a sort of legitimacy. We should not underestimate the effects that large platforms can have on future elections. Our governments must take these issues very seriously.”
