Aid to Ukraine has emerged as a major point of contention in the campaign ahead of the German legislative elections on February 23, tearing parties apart, including what remains of Olaf Scholz’s government coalition.
On Tuesday, from the Davos forum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself was moved by this, while he already fears seeing American support melt away with Donald Trump.
“We must not play with people’s emotions and say that the defense” from Ukraine “is to the detriment of medicine or pensions or whatever”he said.
A remonstrance implicitly addressed to Olaf Scholz. The social democratic chancellor, whose military support for Ukraine has been up and down since the Russian offensive of February 2022, has been blocking an additional envelope for kyiv for several days.
The discussion concerns 3 billion euros, planned in principle for this year, but financing for which is proving difficult to find.
“Who will pay the bill? »asked the chancellor. He explained that he did not want to further burden the 2025 budget without knowing “at whose expense it will be necessary to save”saying he fears for the finances of municipalities or pensions.
First conducted behind the scenes, the debate transformed into open conflict with his head of diplomacy, the ecologist Annalena Baerbock. And, in a more subdued way, with his Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius, even though he is a member of his social-democratic party.
Upheavals
This controversy crowns three years during which Ukraine shook up the situation in Germany, notably pushing the country to end its energy alliance with Moscow and to initiate rearmament.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (l) and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (de), during a meeting in kyiv, January 14, 2025 in Ukraine / Tetiana DZHAFAROVA / AFP/Archives
Berlin has so far paid kyiv nearly 40 billion euros, the second largest amount after the United States, and welcomed 1.2 million of its citizens as refugees. This policy has long been a consensus in public opinion.
“There is a lot of German support, without it Ukraine would have no chance”told AFP Alla Dudka, a 57-year-old Ukrainian who lives in Ingelheim-on-the-Rhine, in the west of the country.
She says she feels this support ” each day “ since his arrival, when neighbors told him “brought clothes, cutlery, pots, everything”.
But she worries about the growing rhetoric against migrants and refugees in Germany, which would cost too much for a country that has entered an economic recession.
Ukrainian Alla Dudka, January 22, 2025 in Mainz, Germany / – / AFP
-“We have suffered so much misfortune (…), it’s really hard to hear that we no longer have the right to stay here”she confides.
Because the German far right advocates the return, or even the expulsion, of refugees from Ukraine. Beyond that, support for Ukrainians through social assistance and arms deliveries are causing growing unease.
Opportunism?
Olaf Scholz is accused by his rivals of acting out of electoral opportunism by blocking the new package of military support for Ukraine.
Election posters of German Chancellor Olaf Schoz (d) and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on January 21, 2025 in Dortmund / Ina FASSBENDER / AFP
With the elections in his sights, the social democrat is now seeking to present himself in “chancellor of peace” in the conflict, in favor of caution, keen to avoid a military escalation with Russia.
He thus marks his difference with the conservative opposition, at the top of the polls, and the environmentalists, who are much more forthcoming on military aid.
Annalena Baerbock leads the offensive against her chancellor, denouncing those who seek “to quickly win votes rather than taking responsibility for truly guaranteeing peace and freedom in Europe”.
For the leader of the liberal FDP party, Christian Lindner, whose departure in November caused the breakup of the government coalition and precipitated the legislative elections, Olaf Scholz, in bad shape in the polls, “behaves like a person panicking for fear of drowning”.
“We must stop playing retirees against Ukrainians”he said on his X account.
Alice Weidel, co-leader of the German far-right party AfD, in her office, January 9, 2025 in Berlin / Kay Nietfeld / POOL/AFP
On the extreme side, opposition to aid to Ukraine is increasingly resolute.
On the right, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), with a pro-Russian program and ranked second with more than 20% in opinion polls, is in the lead.
It is followed on this ground by the radical left. “Endless arms deliveries have not improved Ukraine’s situation”believes the leader of the BSW, Sahra Wagenknecht, for whom “we must not prolong the agony”.
