This revelation of Wall Street Journal comes as the American president, inaugurated on Monday, threatened Russia with new sanctions, but promised to telephone Vladimir Putin.
The Ukrainian war, started by Russia in 2014, needed to be resolved “in twenty-four hours”according to Donald Trump. He changed his mind, during his campaign, by announcing instead “a few weeks”. “One of his top priorities will be to quickly end the war in Ukraine”certified his campaign manager, Steven Cheung, last July. The president, inaugurated on Monday, had even described his method on Fox News : he would call Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin with whom he maintains “good relationships”. “I would say to Zelensky: enough is enough, you have to make a deal”. “And I would say to Putin: if you don’t conclude an agreement, we will give a lot (to Ukraine, editor’s note). More than they ever got if we must”.
If the fanciful deadline of one day to resolve one of the major conflicts of the beginning of the 21st century has been exceeded, it is clear that Donald Trump seems to take its resolution seriously. “Zelensky wants to make a deal. I don’t know if Putin wants that, maybe not. He should do it. I believe he is destroying Russia by not finding a settlement.” he said in the Oval Office a few hours after taking office. “Russia is facing big problems. Look at the economy, the inflation, he added. It exceeds, in fact, almost 9.5%, the third highest rate among the fifty largest economies in the world. The Russian central bank had to raise interest rates to 21%, and the ruble, the Russian currency, lost 8% against the dollar in November.
“Last peace” rather than “brief truce”
As if to implement his strategy, Donald Trump announced Tuesday that new sanctions against the Russian economy are “probable”. “We will talk very soon with President Putin, and we will see what happens,” he said. A first between the American and Russian heads of state since the large-scale invasion of February 24, 2022. However, on the military side, the advantage remains with the Kremlin which continues to advance in the Donbass, now threatening the cities of Pokrovsk and Toretsk, capitals in the Ukrainian defensive system. The interest for Vladimir Putin, who has managed to find economic solutions in the face of Western sanctions, to negotiate therefore does not seem obvious. In his message of congratulations to the American president, he nevertheless made it known “be open to dialogue” and search “lasting peace” rather than a “brief truce”.
“Nearly 1 million Russian soldiers and around 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed,” explained Donald Trump this Monday. “Russia is bigger – it has more soldiers to lose – but that’s no way to run a country,” he added. Western estimates, until now, were quite different: 80,000 Ukrainians killed and 200,000 Russians, for example, according to the Wall Street Journal last September. Whatever the case, the American president, faithful to his method of putting pressure on his adversary during a negotiation, seems to cast doubt on his intentions. On the one hand, he offers a telephone interview with Vladimir Putin, on the other he threatens new sanctions and increased aid to Ukraine. The carrot and the stick, which he also uses against kyiv. He thus suspended all American foreign aid for three months. kyiv thus received four billion dollars, used mainly to rebuild and modernize its energy system, targeted by Russian strikes.
-Several observers favored, before his inauguration, a significant increase in American military and financial aid. Thus, the United States would improve Ukraine’s posture in a possible negotiation. To date, their support has reached nearly 100 billion dollars, since the start of the invasion, according to the Kiel Institute, which is the reference. But Donald Trump has few escalatory tools left, the previous administration having successively authorized the delivery of tanks, combat planes, and finally deep strikes using long-range ATACMS missiles. An intensification of military or financial aid would finally come up against Ukraine’s recruitment difficulties.
A difficult agreement to find
But the content of a possible agreement around the Ukrainian conflict remains unknown. Volodymyr Zelensky has stated his conditions on multiple occasions: withdrawal of Russia from all occupied territories (nearly 20% of the country), compensation and bringing war criminals to justice. The Kremlin, for its part, has indicated that it will retain its territorial gains, especially since these are officially Russian regions, since their annexation following referendums not recognized by international law. In addition, she demands “demilitarization” and the “denazification” of Ukraine, as well as a commitment not to join NATO or the European Union. An open door to a new invasion for the kyiv authorities, who want solid security guarantees against Moscow. Ukrainian president calls for European peacekeeping force “at least 200,000 men”this Tuesday at the Davos forum. “It’s the minimum, otherwise it’s useless”he said.
Donald Trump appointed a special envoy to whom he gave one hundred days, revealed this Wednesday le Wall Street Journal to resolve the conflict: General Keith Kellogg. “Almost no one thinks he can achieve it, especially the Russians”comments skeptically on the American daily. In April 2024, this 80-year-old Vietnam veteran published his plan: fix the line of contact as a line of demarcation, and therefore recognize in fact their occupation by Russia, delay Ukraine’s NATO membership for twenty years in exchange for solid American security guarantees. Sanctions against Russia would gradually be lifted. For his part, the current American vice-president, JD Vance, clarified his vision of peace in Ukraine on the Shawn Ryan Show podcast last September. Peaceful settlement of the conflict “probably resembles the current dividing line between Russia and Ukraine which would become a sort of demilitarized zone.” This would be strongly fortified in order to dissuade Russia from attacking again, and under surveillance of European troops, according to the Wall Street Journal . Membership in NATO would also be ruled out.
Without even talking about Moscow, it remains to be seen whether Ukraine, subject to the war launched by Russia in 2014, would accept such an agreement. Indeed, in 1994, Russia committed, via the memorandum from Budapest, to respect Ukrainian borders in exchange for kyiv’s nuclear disarmament. The United Kingdom and the United States were guarantors of the agreement. Which did not prevent Vladimir Putin from conquering 20% of Ukraine twenty years later.
