Par
Maxime PONSOT
Published on
Jan 18, 2025 at 5:15 p.m.
Prices at the pump are the rise at the start of 2025. And even since the start of the 2024 school year. At least that is what we can see from the government database, which lists sales prices.
For example, a liter of diesel increased on average from 1.65 to 1.68 euros between December 6 and January 10. At the same time, the liter of SP98 gasoline (from 1.82 to 1.86 euros) and that of SP95 (1.76 to 1.79) experienced an increase of 4 and 3 cents.
For what ? Consumer prices of petroleum products depend on several production costs (refining, transport-distribution, taxation, etc.). Currently, the answer can be found in commodity prices: oil.
Oil prices on the rise
The price of a barrel of Brent, from the North Sea, is climbing. ” This increase since mid-December, casually, quite substantial», notes Olivier Gantois, president of Ufip EM (French Union of Petroleum Industries Energy and Mobility), requested by actu.fr.
“The price was very stable in December 2024, around $73 or $74 per barrel. Since the end of December, it has started to rise, arriving at the present time (January 17) at approximately 81 dollars“, he notes. That’s an increase of around 10%.
And a level that he had not reached since July 2024if we look at prixdubaril.com. Apart from a slight fall on Thursday January 16, the increase is clear and more or less constant since December 19, as for the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), its American equivalent.
New sanctions against Russia
How to explain this increase? “There are cyclical reasons: the United Kingdom and the United States have requested a tightening of sanctions against Russia,” indicates Olivier Gantois.
The impact of sanctions against Russia
Sanctions have already been in force since 2022 and the launch of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, although they sometimes took a few months to be put in place. The European Union prohibits importing crude oil or petroleum products from Russia.
Oil prices are buoyed by the announcement of new sanctions against major players in the Russian oil sector.
In detail, the US Treasury Department announced measures against more than 180 ships as well as the major Russian oil companies Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, thus respecting “the G7 commitment to reduce Russian revenues from energy”. London has also decided to sanction these two companies.
-“What surprises me is such an increase,” adds the spokesperson for oil companies in France. “These new sanctions are for the moment only ‘intentions’, or rather announcements, but they are not effective. »
The new administration in the United States, after the election of Donald Trump, could also request new sanctions.
No impact of the truce in Gaza
On the other hand, “the fundamental elements in place for some time have not changed”, continues Olivier Gantois withactu.fr.
“If we expected an end to the war between Ukraine and Russia, prices would fall, but this is not the case, so forecasts are based on Russia, the world’s third largest oil producer, still at war “, he explains.
As for the ceasefire in the Middle East, it has had no impact. “Since October 7, 2023, this has had no impact: neither for the terrorist attack (by Hamas) nor for the response of the State of Israel (on Gaza). So there is no reason for there to be one for the truce,” analyzes Olivier Gantois.
Some feared a conflagration in the Middle East, there was no conflagration in the oil markets, the price never moved because of that. The ceasefire announcement therefore had no downward impact.
Stable production and demand expected to rise in 2025
Finally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which each month decides to renew their production restriction, chose at the beginning of December to maintain the cuts. In order to prevent there being surpluses and thus maintain the curves.
Additionally, global demand continues to increase. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its monthly update for January, indicated that it was 102.9 million barrels per day at the end of 2024 and that the forecast for 2025 is 104 million. That’s an increase of almost a million.
“My feeling is that the market determinants have been in place for two years, they still are and will not change immediately,” imagines Olivier Gantois.
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