For a week, mega-fires have ravaged entire neighborhoods in California.
While this type of event is likely to be repeated in the future, Los Angeles is scheduled to host the next Olympic and Paralympic Games.
But will the city really be ready to welcome the world in 2028?
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Los Angeles plagued by historic fires
Flames several meters high, charred buildings and firefighters sometimes overwhelmed by the scale of the disaster. Since January 7, Los Angeles has been plagued by immense fires, devastating entire neighborhoods without sparing the famous Hollywood and Malibu. While it is still time for evacuations, the question of reconstruction will inevitably arise in the coming days.
But some are already planning for the longer term, and in particular around July and August 2028, dates of the next Olympic and Paralympic Games (JOP). Like Paris last summer, Los Angeles will then have to welcome athletes and spectators from all over the world, a real logistical challenge for the second city in the United States. But voices are being raised to warn of the dangers of holding such an event in just three and a half years.
The current situation could repeat itself, perhaps even during the Games
Simon Chadwick, professor of geopolitical economics of sport at Skema Business School
It is obviously impossible to know whether fires, by nature unpredictable, will break out during the Olympic (July 14-30, 2028) and Paralympic (August 15-27, 2028) fortnights. “The situation is clearly serious and, given the prospect of significant climate change, it is questionable whether the current situation could be repeated, perhaps even during the Games”underlines in the British daily The i Paper (new window) Simon Chadwick, professor of geopolitical economics of sport at Skema Business School.
On “Instead of canceling the Olympics and focusing on economic recovery, officials want to speed up rebuilding so we can host them.” For Charlie Kirk, a political commentator close to Donald Trump, it would be appropriate to “move elsewhere, to a more secure environment”.
-Olympic sites at the heart of the fires
In September 2017, the LA 2028 project was chosen by the International Olympic Committee (new window) on a simple promise: “use 100% of existing or temporary sites”. An ecological commitment that risks being compromised, notably by the Palisades Fire. By continuing to expand in recent hours, it threatens future competition venues. For example, the Riviera Country Club, reserved for golf, is now surrounded by a landscape of desolation.
Further to the northwest, the Sepulveda area (archery, BMX, skateboarding) was caught between the Kenneth Fire, fully contained this Monday, and the Hurst Fire. The Rose Bowl Stadium, the nearly 90,000-seat football stadium, is located near the Eaton Fire. The Daily Bruine (new window)for its part, reports that the flames are inexorably approaching the university campus (UCLA), which will be transformed into the Olympic village in the summer of 2028. Historian of the Olympic Games, Tom Stallings considers, in an interview with New York Post (new window)that the damaged venues cannot be repaired in three years and that the competitions will have to be moved “to other nearby areas or stadiums“.
What about Brisbane in 2032?
If the infrastructure manages to be preserved, the 2028 Olympic Games will not be saved, according to experts. In The Parisian (new window)Simon Chadwick even mentions a “uninsurable mega-event”.
The current fires are causing damage estimated between 10 and 15 billion dollars, according to the Standard and Poor’s agency, which only takes into account insured property. California being very vulnerable to extreme weather events, the bill could become a real financial pit by 2028. Insurance companies could therefore refuse to cover natural disasters impacting the JOP. The organizers would then have to bear any financial losses alone. Paris 2024 had already had to do without cancellation insurance, after several reinsurers withdrew following the costs generated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
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The IOC President has not yet responded to these questions, insisting that“Currently, all attention must be focused on fighting fires and protecting people and property”. But the same questions will probably arise for all future editions. In 2032, it will be the turn of Brisbane, Australia, to imagine Games in a time of global warming: in the winter of 2019-2020, the country experienced the largest fires in its history. 445 people then died due to the smoke.
