In 2024, cryptocurrency investment products have been in high demand. In total, the market saw over $44 billion in inflows, and $38 billion was sent to Bitcoin. Despite everything, the price of BTC has been hesitating since the peak found around $108,000. It is also back in a range between resistance at $99,000 and support at $92,000. If the situation does not improve, the price could even end up losing $90,000. This excitement displayed on cryptocurrencies since December could be the result of the strength of the dollar. Let’s take a look at the situation in the Macro point!
Towards a new rebound between the bullish moving averages 9 and 18 for Bitcoin?
The price of Bitcoin continues ascending troughs and peaks since the break of the bearish trendline and since the 70 000 $ have been clearly crossed. BTC finds buyers around institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) bullish for several weeks now. The price once again finds itself between these bullish moving averages in 3-day time units:
The course could bounce here and find the latest all-time highs. To continue on the bullish momentum in progress, it will be necessary break the ATH around $108,000. If buyers do not show up around the moving averages, the bearish volatility could intervene. For the moment, given the dynamics displayed by BTC, these are still the bulls who have the advantage.
The RSI is bullish for several months. However, the momentum indicator decline since the end of Novemberand it evolves under a bearish trendline. It will be necessary break this trendline to have a momentum totally bullish again.
Risk off: the dollar soars and gold stabilizes
The dollar has been rising since September
The course of dollar index (DXY) evolved in a range between the end of 2022 and the end of 2024. This range allowed Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general to express themselves. However, since September, the price of dollar moving upwardsand the range was broken to the upside. The course ends more than 700 days of storage :
And it is rather a bad news for cryptocurrencies. Indeed, it is never positive to see the dollar perform like this. The last time the dollar was as efficientit was during the transition of cryptocurrencies into bear marketat the end of 2021. For cryptos to be able to perform again, a top is quickly put in place on the DXY.
RSI tries to break a bearish trendline in place for several years. From the bullish volatility could be put in place under these conditions if it is not a false breakout.
Gold hesitates around $2,600
The price of gold shows a bullish trend since the end of 2022, but it has recently recorded a local top. Indeed, a signal of weakness was set up with the closing in 3 days under the last low at $2,600. Since this close, the price ofgold hesitates and no longer shows clear direction :
THE sellers have the opportunity to take control here, and cause the price to fall towards the next strong support located at $2,400. To see that buyers have control over the price again, it will take a closes beyond latest all-time high at $2,790. The RSI is back at the level of the bullish trendline. And bounce could be put in place, and in this case, the momentum would remain in the hands of the bulls.
-Despite Bitcoin falling below 100 000 $the pair Gold/BTC continues to be fragile :
The BTC significantly outperforms gold since the end of 2022, and the trend could continue in 2025. For the moment, the trend is bearish on the pair. The RSI, for its part, generally trending downward for several months. Therefore, the momentum is feverish for the moment, even if bullish divergence seems to appear.
The US market has been gaining strength for a month
New rebound coming to the support at $5,850 for the S&P 500?
The S&P 500 price is installed in a bullish momentum since the end of 2022. Furthermore, we note that the course finds rebounds at the level of the bullish moving averages 9 and 18 since the start of 2024. The price is currently stuck around 6 000 $and he is back at the level of bullish institutional bias :
Here, a bounce could happen, and in that case, the S&P 500 could register an ATH. On the other hand, if the support and the moving averages do not allow a rebound, a return to the support at $5,650 is possible.
The RSI is currently divergebut the validation of the bearish divergence will only be made in the event of closing under 43. This would indicate a slowing of the upward trend.
Upcoming rebound on the bullish 9 and 18 moving averages on the NASDAQ?
Like the S&P 500, the NASDAQ is also moving upwards since the end of 2022. And the bullish 9 and 18 moving averages act as dynamic support since the start of 2023:
Currently, the course is still found on this dynamic support. And bounce is therefore possible on the NASDAQ, as long as the support at $20,300 is preserved. If the support gives way, the price could fall towards the next support located at $18,300. The RSI is bullish since 2022, and it could once again bounce back on the bullish trendline. Despite everything, in the event of break of the trendline and of close below last low at 40a bearish divergence would appear.
Key elements to remember
The price of Bitcoin displays an overall bullish dynamic despite the hesitation around $100,000. This is a difficult psychological round number to cross, many sellers take advantage of it to take profits. Despite the recent decline, BTC continues to outperform gold. On the other hand, BTC and cryptocurrencies must face a powerful dollar, which has just broken out of a range of more than 700 days. For its part, the American market is stabilizing close to its historic highs and new ATHs are still possible in the weeks and months to come.
