A third of Russian gas exports to Europe are affected, or a little more than 14 billion cubic meters per year, according to official figures. Which represented 5% of European imports of natural gas during the first months of 2024. As soon as the transit actually ended, the price of gas rose to reach its highest level in a year, before decreasing slightly. Europe, like Ukraine, will therefore have a price to pay, hoping that the economic and political impact will be greater for the Kremlin.
“This is a historic event”: kyiv and Moscow confirm the end of Russian gas transit to Europe via Ukraine
Door open to Russian strikes?
“Ukraine both wins and loses“, estimates Anne-Sophie Corbeau, researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in New York. “It effectively reduces the revenues received by Moscow and reduces the flow of Russian gas to European countries which are politically more Russophile. On the other hand, she also lost the money she herself received during this transit, i.e. a little less than a billion dollars. When you see your budget, it’s not entirely trivial“.
The risk, now, is also military: useful for the Russians, the Ukrainian gas network had until now been spared. Nothing now prevents Moscow from bombing it as a retaliatory measure. “Apart from a few attacks last April on storage units in the west of the country, the network was preserved“, confirms Anne-Sophie Corbeau. “The Kremlin essentially attacked the electricity grid. The gas network could remain useful in the future, but some parts are important for transit and others are important for the Ukrainian system. The Russian army could decide to carry out surgical strikes on parts that do not interest it and/or target storage units.no attack of this type has yet been detected, but it could well be that Moscow will wait until January 20 and the arrival of Donald Trump to see how the situation will evolve.
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Europe by 2027
Europe, for its part, is far from being weaned off Russian gas, which it still obtains via Turkey (Turkstream) and imports large quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by LNG tankers, in Zeebrugge in particular. The closure of the Ukrainian route therefore does not have the same impact for all Member States, and particularly affects Slovakia and Austria, which both obtained more than 75% of their gas from it. This further fuels political dissension within the European Union over the approach to adopt towards Moscow. “On the one hand, you have countries like Slovakia and Austria, which are worried about their supplies.” comments the researcher from the Center on Global Energy Policy. “And on the other, you have the European Commission which believes that it was necessary to put an end to this Ukrainian transit to accelerate European independence from Russian gas, scheduled for 2027.
The objective is far from being achieved at present. “In 2024, 30 billion cubic meters of Russian gas were delivered by pipeline from Ukraine and Turkstream and around 20 billion cubic meters of LNG,” she continues. “We have been hearing in Brussels for two years that something should be done on LNG, without much following. The situation could be unblocked by 2027 when waves of gas arrive on the market with the realization of major American, Qatari and other projects…”
Is Russia or does it expect to be destabilized by then? “It’s starting to have a little impact“, concludes Anne-Sophie Corbeau, “but gas above all affects geopolitical issues. If you want to have a real impact on money, you have to tackle oil. And to be completely honest, the only actor that really has a detrimental effect on Moscow is the United States. Again, the whole question is what will happen with the arrival of Donald Trump and what his position will be on oil and gas.
