SPECIAL COLLABORATION
Welcome to The Week in NUMBERS. Each week, I highlight key statistics that have defined training successes and failures over the past seven days.
This week: we are in the “mix”, fire at will, and Kirby Dach is gaining confidence
2
Points between CH and a place in the playoffs
“We want to be in the mix”
This is a phrase that was repeated to us by management during the summer and at training camp. As of December 1, it seemed like a dream rather than a reality, as Montreal was 31st in the NHL with a paltry 19 points in 24 games.
Fast forward to a month later and the Canadian suddenly finds himself right in the heart of the playoff race with 39 points, just two points behind the Pittsburgh Penguins and the last qualifying spot. Surprisingly, this is exactly the same total as last year at the same date, but there is no doubt that the Habs’ play is clearly improved this season. Last year, Samuel Montembeault stole several games that CH had no chance of winning otherwise. The successes were absolutely unsustainable and we saw it with a second half of the season where performances regressed towards what most people predicted in training camp: a top-5 pick in the 2024 draft.
This time, we arrive at these results after the best month since Martin St-Louis was in charge. Patrik Laine broke records on the power play, the 3rd and 4th lines are playing inspired hockey, Cole Caufield is in the top 10 of the NHL’s best scorers, Lane Hutson continues to shine. In short, it is much easier to see how the CH could maintain the pace of the last month than it was at the same date last season. The month of January doesn’t look any easier, with 9 of the next 12 opponents in the playoffs in the standings. But hey, after all, if you want to be in the “mix”, this is exactly the kind of club you have to beat. This will be a great test for Montreal.
If we are still in the famous “mix” when February begins, we could start talking seriously about series.
4
Games with more than 30 shots since December 20
This is a statistic that circulated everywhere in the media and on social networks during the month of December. As of December 19, the Canadian had never taken more than 30 shots on target in a match.
-They finally got over the board against Detroit on December 20 with 33 shots on target in Alexandre Carrier’s first game in a Canadian uniform. They then did it three more times during the holiday season, against Columbus (33 shots on target), Tampa Bay (37) and Chicago (40). These are encouraging signs, but shooting quality has yet to follow the same upward trend.
If Martin St-Louis’ men manage to attack the enclave more regularly while maintaining this increase in volume, this is where the attack could truly reach its full potential. It will be difficult this week though, as the Canucks, Capitals, and Stars rank 8th, 13th, and 7th respectively in slot attempts allowed per game.
4
Points for Kirby Dach in his last 5 games
Is this finally the turning point everyone has been waiting for for Kirby Dach?
After all, it’s no secret that Dach had a rough start to the season after returning from a knee injury. The rust was evident, which isn’t surprising after essentially missing an entire year. Although he was the center of the 2nd line for the majority of the first three months, Evans’ line and even Dvorak’s line were often more dangerous than his unit. Many of CH’s projections depend on Dach and his ability to offer a quality 2nd center behind Nick Suzuki to offer the offensive support that was so lacking in the first trio in recent seasons.
After a one-point streak in 16 games, Dach shined during the Canadian’s trip, with three goals and four points in five games, including the winning goal against Vegas, in addition to scoring the winning goal in a shootout against the ‘Avalanche. To not only score, but score big goals in important games must definitely do a world of good for a player’s confidence during such a difficult season.
His trio with Alex Newhook and Patrik Laine, who struggled at 5v5 in their first matches, also seems to have found their rhythm. Laine missed the last two games due to flu symptoms, but in the games against Florida, Tampa Bay, and Vegas, they had about 55% of expected goals in their favor, meaning they were getting more chances than they allowed during these three games against the NHL’s elite. We are far from the 30% they had on their record before this sequence.
I mentioned Dach as one of the most important questions yet to be answered in the CH rebuild. If the answer is what we saw during these important meetings, it is a huge difference for the future of the Canadian.
