Here are Russia’s plans for Ukraine and the West

Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov still want to annex all of Ukraine to Russia.Image: keystone

Putin’s foreign minister outlines in an interview the conditions under which Russia is ready to negotiate. This does not bode well for Ukraine.

Christoph Cöln / t-online

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Russia reached out to Ukraine just in time for the New Year. Shortly before the New Year’s Eve festivities, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke. In an interview with the Russian state news agency TassLavrov notably mentioned possible peace negotiations. The 74-year-old man has once again exposed his very particular vision of things.

Russia would therefore be ready to negotiate – but only on the conditions set by leader Putin. “Russia’s position regarding the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict is known to everyone,” Lavrov said in the interview with the news agency Tassfavorable au Kremlin.

“It has been exposed by President Vladimir Putin on numerous occasions, including at the annual press conference on December 19. We have always been ready to discuss, and we still are.”

Lavrov stressed that Moscow’s positions have not changed and that Putin still wants to achieve all war goals. These include the subjugation of Ukraine, the dismissal of the kyiv government and the prevention of the country’s membership in NATO. The Kremlin is therefore in no way backing down from its aggressive intentions, which pushed Putin to launch his country into the massive invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Putin’s regime toughens its rhetoric towards kyiv

The Russian Foreign Minister has once again made it clear that the Putin regime does not want to participate in peace negotiations until Ukraine abandons its attempt to restore its territorial integrity within the 1991 borders. that is to say, to recover the territories annexed by Russia in violation of international law. Lavrov described kyiv’s statements in this direction as an “ultimatum” to his country. He thus toughened his rhetoric towards the government of Volodymyr Zelensky.

Lavrov once again insisted that the Ukrainian president is part of the “neo-Nazi kyiv regime” that must be overthrown. When the interviewer asked what it meant for Russia that Zelensky recently publicly admitted that Ukraine would hardly be able to regain the territories conquered by Russia by military means, the 74-year-old diplomat said:

“Who knows what this public statement by Volodymyr Zelensky means… He makes all kinds of announcements. To be honest, we stopped listening to him”

Zelensky’s statement was interpreted as a first step showing that Ukraine could be ready to negotiate with Russia regarding the country’s territorial integrity. Zelensky himself announced that he wanted to end the war in 2025 and that he was counting above all on diplomatic efforts. However, he cannot simply abandon the territories conquered by force by Russia, “the Ukrainian Constitution forbids it,” the 46-year-old said in mid-December in an interview with the daily The World.

Russia would not really be interested in negotiations

Analysts from the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) consider Lavrov’s statements as an attempt to put pressure on Ukraine and its allies before Donald Trump takes office in the White House. Military experts analyze:

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“Russia is probably also seeking to push the West to force Ukraine to accept territorial concessions, from which Moscow would benefit in the long term”

It seems that the Russian regime currently considers itself in a favorable position to obtain, during possible peace negotiations, certain key objectives in the total submission of Ukraine. Among the latter is mainly the exclusion of any future accession of kyiv to NATO. It would provide Ukraine with extensive security guarantees, making it more difficult for Russia to resume aggression against its neighbor in coming years.

On this point, Lavrov is clear: “I personally want to emphasize that we need reliable and legally binding agreements that eliminate the causes of the conflict and seal a mechanism preventing any violation of these agreements.”

The United States must abandon its anti-Russian “doctrine”

Regarding the causes of the “conflict,” as the Russian Foreign Minister calls the Russian army’s assault on Ukraine, he added: “NATO has been expanding its influence for many years, which has been one of the main causes of the Ukrainian crisis. In this context, it remains essential to guarantee a non-aligned status to Ukraine within the framework of the objectives of the special military operation [réd: terminologie officielle pour la guerre contre l’Ukraine en Russie]. These objectives must be achieved.

ISW experts conclude from Lavrov’s statements that Russia is actually not at all interested in negotiations with Ukraine and will continue to seek Ukraine’s complete capitulation.

And Ukraine in all this?

In his New Year’s speech, Zelensky asserted that Vladimir Putin’s regime could not be trusted, neither on the battlefield nor in discussions.

“If Russia shakes your hand today, that doesn’t mean that same hand won’t kill you tomorrow.”

For the coming year, the Ukrainian head of state announced that he wanted to continue to strengthen his country. “Only a strong country will be respected and listened to, both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.”

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks addresses a media conference during an EU summit in Brussels, Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert)

Volodymyr Zelensky has no illusions about Russia’s credibility.Image: keystone

The Ukrainian president also expressed great confidence in US President-elect Donald Trump:

“I have no doubt that the new American president wants peace and will be able to put an end to Putin’s aggression”

In his interview, however, Lavrov suggested that Moscow has so far been less than enthusiastic about the US proposals. “We are of course not happy with the proposals from members of the Trump team to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years and to deploy British and European peacekeeping forces to Ukraine.” According to Lavrov, only when the United States abandons this position and its anti-Russian “doctrine” can a dialogue take place.

Translated and adapted from German by Léa Krejci

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