With such a profile, the far-right representative is above all a messenger, a snub addressed to Europe by the pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivinashvili, whose Georgian Dream party has just won the legislative elections. unanimously deemed fraudulent and truncated by local and international observers.
The tens of thousands of people who have been pouring into dozens of towns across the country for a month to denounce the announced departure from the European Union may shout, but Georgia is jumping headlong into authoritarianism, like the ‘illustrate the measures approved on Monday by the new president, intended to definitively and brutally quell the movement. All this, under the benevolent gaze of Moscow, whose influence is more deeply rooted than it seems and subtly disseminated by its relays.
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The fear of losing one’s values
“In rural areas, the conservative positioning of Georgian Dream resonates deeply with a population that remains skeptical of integration into the Western world, associated with change and instability.“, comments Elene Kintsurashvili, researcher at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank. “The party has skillfully positioned itself as a defender of traditional Georgian values, particularly emphasizing the protection of religion, family and cultural identity. The countryside is also more precarious areas, prey to daily survival, which makes them sensitive to an argument that plays on fear: the fear of losing one’s job, one’s social assistance, and more profoundly, the fear of be forgotten.”
The stroke of genius of Georgian Dream, brought to power in 2012 with an apparently pro-European program, is to have been able to play on both counts. Forced to position itself more clearly with the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the government in Tbilisi is now emphasizing its “neutrality”. Certainly a pragmatic approach in a country traumatized by the 2008 war with Russia which still occupies 20 percent of its territory, “but which aligns perfectly with the Kremlin’s objectives“, adds Elene Kintsurashvili.”The fact that Georgian Dream systematically opposes sanctions against Moscow, and even facilitates the circumvention of these measures, illustrates the scale and consequences of this alignment.”
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Opposition and the risk of war
With the war in Ukraine dragging on, pro-Russian rhetoric has taken on another dimension in recent months: if you provoke the Kremlin too much, Europe and NATO risk sending you directly to the front. “Control of the media and carefully manipulated propaganda allowed Georgian Dream to present itself as the only political group capable of preventing war from coming to Georgia.“, poursuit Elene Kintsurashvili. “And to present, conversely, the opposition as radical and pro-war parties under Western influence. This affects very little urban populations who are very connected, but more so older people for whom television is their primary source of information.. The argument serves the party as much as Russia“.
Although this strategy clearly did not allow the pro-Russian party to win the legislative elections of October 26 without cheating, it nonetheless brought in votes, fractured society and weakened the opposition, which is struggling to propose an alternative solution while suffering from European indecision regarding Ukraine.
Elections in Georgia: signs of electoral fraud, according to an American polling institute
However, Georgia is far from being the only country concerned. On the other side of the Black Sea, Moldova almost suffered a similar fate. Stuck between Romania and Ukraine, the former Soviet republic narrowly saw a referendum on its membership of the European Union pass which seemed a foregone conclusion. The same day, pro-Western candidate Maia Sandu won the second round of the presidential election, obtaining 55% of the votes against 45% for her pro-Russian opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo. Here too, local authorities have identified a number of irregularities, ranging from death threats to massive vote buying, including the “organized transportation” of voters favorable to Moscow. And here too, Mr. Stoianoglo has continued to indicate that, if elected, he would start by contacting Vladimir Putin to play the de-escalation card.
“General mobilization in Romania”
In neighboring Romania, a member of the European Union since 2007, a pro-Russian far-right candidate came first in the first round of the presidential election at the end of November. The entire vote was annulled by the Constitutional Court after serious irregularities were found on Tik Tok, where Calin Georgescu carried out most of his campaign. But the latter remains no less popular, and nothing says that he will not come out on top in the new election.
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“More than 60% of Romanians still favor serious and consistent support for Ukraine“, estimates Sergiu Miscoiu, professor of political science at the Romanian University of Cluj-Napoca. “But the more this progresses, the less people tend to favor a bellicose attitude. More and more of them recommend a more cautious approach“.
Contrary to what we observe elsewhere, the institutionalized Romanian extreme right “has polished his speech over time” notes M. Miscoiu. “It has become less anti-European, less anti-NATO and pays little attention to Ukraine. When a newcomer ran for president with the opposite narrative, he almost won. Calin Georgescu spoke directly to young Romanian men, telling them that if he was not elected, there would be a general mobilization in Romania and that young Romanians would be thrown by NATO on the front line of a war which does not concern them“.
Electoral earthquake in Romania: a pro-Russian candidate that no one expected creates a surprise in the presidential election
Germany and Austria affected
Here too, the researcher sees a carefully implemented Moscow strategy. “The question is more complex, because unlike Moldova, Bulgaria and even Georgia, Romania has never been Russophile. It was therefore necessary to adopt a more hidden strategy, focusing on a narrative that played more on the uniqueness of the sovereign people and self-determination. Calin Georgescu brought together by playing on fear in the broad sense and adding a good dose of spirituality: what does it mean to be Romanian? Be a believer? To be European? What is our place in this world and the hereafter?
The European Union is far from being immune. The pro-Russian positions of Hungary and Slovakia – both heavily dependent on gas delivered by the Kremlin – are well known and accepted. In Austria, the FPÖ (far right) won the legislative elections last September, a first since the post-war period. Its figurehead – Herbert Kickl – has repeatedly called for an end to support for Ukraine and a freeze on sanctions imposed on Russia. “We do not want young Austrians to be forced to go to war“, said one of his deputies, Volker Reifenberger. Enough to inspire his popular German alter ego, the Afd, which formally invited the authorities to reconsider the country’s membership in NATO.
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