After a calm New Year, under the clouds in the north and the sun in the south, the weather will change. After the passage of an active disturbance on Thursday, will winter return to France as certain models suggest?
After much hesitation, the weather situation to start this new year is gradually settling down. So, if the New Year is calm with gray weather in the north and sunny in the south, the depressions will move closer to France, gradually influencing the weather here. A disturbance will then cross the country during the day on Thursday.
It is after this disturbed passage that a mass of cold air will arrive from the north of the territory. The jellies will thus make their return while snow could reach the plains in the northeastern regions. But this cold weather (completely normal for the season) may well be very temporary…
Return of cold from the north between Thursday and Friday
While December 31 was once again marked by negative temperatures all day in the center-east and the north-east, such as in Nancy, Metz, Dijon and Mâcon, a warm spell is taking place in these first hours of 2025… With a south-southwest wind, the cold temporarily gives way to milder air. It will be accompanied by rains which will cross the country on Thursday.
However, this precipitation may occur in the form of snow in the northeast due to the resistance of cold air in these regions. Then, behind this front, significantly colder air will quickly infiltrate. Thus, on Thursday morning, it will be around ten degrees in Nantes or 8°C in Orléans while in the afternoon, the thermometers will drop to 7 and 5°C respectively in these cities.
-Friday morning, the cold will progress and become noticeably worse with frequent frosts upon waking. Peaks of -4 or even -5°C will be possible between Lorraine and Franche-Comté. During the day, the maximums will rarely exceed 1 to 4°C under cover in a large northern half. The next day, the risk of frost will remain mainly in the east of the country.
A marked redoubt this weekend?
While a descent of polar air was forecast for the weekend by most models for several days, the situation has evolved. It now seems more and more likely that the disrupted westerly circulation will quickly take over. Thus, rain will return on Saturday through the Atlantic regions.
They will arrive with significantly milder air, pushing the cold towards central Europe. Outside the far north, the risk of frost will be zero on Sunday morning. It will sometimes even be over 10°C in Brittany! During the day, the mildness will become marked with peaks of 15°C possible even in the central regions. Beyond the weekend, the forecast becomes unreliable.
Indeed, if it is certain that the cold and snow will be limited at the end of the week, everything is possible for next week. Some models envisage the arrival of polar air from the northeast of the country while others maintain milder weather than normal. To be continued…