Ukraine’s announcement of the end of Russian gas transit through its territory from January 1, 2025 is redrawing the energy map of Europe. This decision, which ends a contract signed in 2019 between the Ukrainian companies Naftogaz and GTSOU, as well as the Russian giant Gazprom, will profoundly affect Eastern countries, where dependence on Russian gas remains strong despite an overall drop in imports. European.
Major impact for Slovakia
On the front line, Slovakia still depends heavily on Russian gas for its supply. Currently, Gazprom finances transit costs through Ukraine, making this source more competitive than alternatives. With the planned closure, Slovakia will have to turn to other suppliers, leading to additional costs estimated at 150 million euros, according to the national company SPP.
This complex situation pushed Prime Minister Robert Fico to strengthen negotiations with Moscow, despite international criticism. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accuses Bratislava of helping to finance the war in Russia, an accusation that the Slovak government rejects in favor of its priority economic policy.
Costly diversification
Austria, neighboring Slovakia, has already cut its contractual ties with Gazprom in December 2024, but this strategy remains difficult for Bratislava to adopt. “Diversification has a price,” explains Ondrej Sebesta, spokesperson for SPP. Alternatives include imports from more distant suppliers, such as Azerbaijan or Qatar, increasing logistics costs.
In this context, experts are warning of the risks of shortages, particularly if the winter of 2025 proves to be particularly harsh. For the European Union, this crisis highlights the need to strengthen its common energy security policies.
Moldova under tension
Moldova is also affected by the closure of Ukrainian transit. Although it has increased its efforts to diversify, it remains dependent on the Cuciurgan thermal power station, located in the separatist region of Transnistria, powered by Russian gas. The Moldovan government has declared a state of energy emergency, anticipating power cuts if supplies are not guaranteed.
Maia Sandu, Moldova’s pro-European president, accuses Moscow of using energy as a tool for political pressure. This situation comes at a critical time, a few months before the legislative elections in a context of increased tensions between Chisinau and the Kremlin.
Hungary in waiting position
Hungary, although less dependent on Ukrainian transit thanks to the TurkStream gas pipeline, remains vigilant in the face of this development. Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently spoke of negotiations with Moscow and kyiv to maintain modest volumes via Ukraine. This strategy, however, fuels criticism within the European Union, which is pushing Budapest to reduce its ties with Gazprom.
For expert Andras Deak, Hungary risks becoming Gazprom’s “last customer” in the EU, which could expose the country to increasing political pressure from Brussels. By maintaining its partnership with Russia, Budapest is choosing a controversial path but considered economically viable in the short term.
