1X2 prediction: which team to bet on?
Napoli wins the match
1. Napoli have a superior home performance: Napoli have won 60% of their last 5 home games while Venezia haven’t won any of their last 5 away games. This trend shows that Napoli are more likely to win the match.
2. Naples’ offensive and defensive potential is higher: At home, Naples scores on average 1.4 goals per game and concedes on average 1.2 goals per game, i.e. an offensive potential of 50% and a defensive potential of 43%. On the other hand, Venezia scores on average 1.2 goals per match and concedes on average 1.8 goals per away match. Venezia’s offensive potential is 43% and its defensive potential is 64%, showing a worse performance than Napoli.
3. The odds of winning are in favor of Napoli: The probability of Napoli winning the match is 78.76%, much higher than that of Venezia (7.25%). This is a strong indicator that Napoli are the favorites to win the match.
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Over/Under 2.5: that even?
More than 2.5 goals in the match
1. General goal performance: In their last 5 respective matches, Napoli have scored 5 goals and conceded 6 goals, while Venezia have scored 5 goals and conceded 7 goals. These statistics suggest that both teams have been involved in matches where over 2.5 goals have been recurring.
2. Goal averages: Based on the average goals scored and conceded per match for Napoli and Venezia over their last 5 meetings, i.e. 1.4 goals per match for Napoli and 1.2 for Venezia, we expect the sum total match goals probably exceeds 2.5.
3. Market Odds: The betting market gives a winning probability of 55.96% for over 2.5 goals in the match, indicating that bettors strongly believe in this possibility.
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BTTS: Will both teams score?
Both teams score: No
1. Venezia’s poor away offensive performance: Averaging 1.2 goals per away game and winning 0% of the time, Venezia has shown extremely limited offensive potential, making it less likely that They score a goal against Naples.
2. The high probability of Napoli winning the match: With a probability of 78.76% to win, and an average of 1.4 goals per home game, Napoli are favorites and could potentially win without conceding a goal thanks to their good defensive performance at home .
3. Napoli’s defensive performance: Conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game at home, Napoli showed a fairly solid defensive performance, making it less likely that both teams would score during the match.
Which bet offers an attractive value bet?
Draw
1. Napoli, despite being favorites, have had a high rate of draws at home recently (40%). This trend, coupled with rather poor away results for Venezia (0% wins, 40% draws), suggests that a draw is a realistic possibility.
2. In terms of offensive and defensive performance, Naples and Venezia are quite balanced. Napoli score an average of 1.4 goals per home game and Venezia concede an average of 1.8 goals per away game. This could limit the potential for a clear win for either team, increasing the likelihood of a draw.
3. The odds for a draw (6.00) are significantly higher than the odds for a win for Napoli (1.26) or Venezia (12.00). Given both teams’ recent performances, a draw appears to offer the best risk-reward ratio. This “value bet” could therefore be an interesting betting option.
Betting on the correct score
Naples 2-1 Venice
1. Napoli’s home performance is generally better than Venezia’s away performance. Indeed, Napoli have won 60% of their last 5 home matches, while Venezia have not won any of their last 5 away games.
2. Analysis of goals per match averages also reveals an advantage for Napoli. On average, Napoli score 1.4 goals per home game and concede 1.2, while Venezia score 1.2 away goals and concede 1.8. This trend justifies the prediction of a score of 2-1 in favor of Naples.
3. Finally, the odds clearly indicate that Napoli are the favorites with a win probability of 78.76%. Furthermore, the probability of the match ending with more than 1.5 goals is 77.72%, which reinforces the idea of a final score of 2-1.
Analysis and key facts of the match
The shape of the teams
Naples shines at home, with a victory in 60% of cases and a draw in 40% of cases over the last 5 matches. The club has scored 5 goals and conceded 6. Its average offensive and defensive performances stand at 1.4 and 1.2 goals respectively, which makes an offensive potential of 50% and a defensive potential of 43%.
For its part, Venezia is struggling outside. In its last 5 trips, the club has not won a match, with a draw in 40% of cases. He has scored 5 goals and conceded 7. His offensive potential is 43% and his defensive potential is 64%.
Based on the odds, Napoli are heavily favored with a 78.76% chance of winning. A draw has a probability of 13.99% while a Venezia win only has a 7.25% chance of happening.
As for goal probabilities, there is a 77.72% chance of having more than 1.5 goals in the match and a 55.96% probability that the match ends with more than 2.5 goals.
Finally, there is a 43.01% chance that both teams will score.
In conclusion, Naples seems to have the advantage. The advice would therefore be to bet on a Napoli victory, with a potential of more than 1.5 goals in the match.
The number of potential goals
Napoli are showing solid form at home, with 60% wins. The team scored 5 goals and conceded 6, showing an offensive potential of 50% and a defense of 43%.
Venezia, on the other hand, did not win away. With 0% wins and 40% draws, the team has scored 5 goals and conceded 7. Its offensive potential is 43% and its defense is stronger at 64%.
The probability of Napoli winning the match is 78.76%. The draw is less likely, with a chance of 13.99%, while Venezia’s victory has only a 7.25% chance.
Goal-wise, the match has a 77.72% probability of scoring more than 1.5 goals. The score could go up, with a 55.96% chance of reaching over 2.5 goals.
Finally, the probability of both teams scoring is 43.01%, while 56.99% of matches could end without either team scoring.
Prediction: Naples has a strong chance of winning this match, with a success rate of 78.76%. We can also predict more than 1.5 goals scored in the match, with a probability of 77.72%.
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Our conclusions and prediction for this match
In summary, in view of all the analyzes and statistics presented, it clearly appears that Naples has all the assets to win this match against Venezia on December 29, 2024. With a solid performance at home, superior offensive and defensive potential and with the odds of victory largely in their favor, Naples should dictate the pace of the match.
What’s more, the match should be rich in goals, with a high probability of seeing more than 2.5 goals during the match. However, both teams are unlikely to score, given Venezia’s offensive struggles away from home. The exact score could potentially settle at 2-1 in favor of Napoli, matching both their tendency to score at home and Venezia’s fairly leaky defense away.
Despite the favored predictions for Napoli, a bet on a draw could present good value, given the balanced performances of the two teams and the market offer. This option could be interesting for bettors looking for a compromise between risk and potential gain.
In conclusion, as a sports betting expert, I would recommend a bet on a Napoli victory with over 2.5 total goals in the match. However, each bettor should take into account their own level of risk appetite before following this recommendation, betting remains a game where the outcome is never 100% guaranteed.
