The president-elect's statement in Phoenix on December 22 made the Mexican population fear the worst, who believe that the American government is largely responsible for the level of violence in the country.
His comments did not reassure Mexicans, 72% of whom believe that the American government bears a high or very high share of responsibility for the level of violence in their country, according to a poll published on December 20 in the Spanish daily The Country. At the ultraconservative organization Turning Point's December 22 forum in Phoenix, Arizona, President-elect Donald Trump promised to expel “all foreign gang members” and declare the cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations” upon taking office on January 20. Thus bringing the issue of cartels back to the forefront, without significant development for several decades, although at the heart of the fentanyl health crisis in the United States, a drug responsible for the deaths of 50,000 to 60,000 Americans in 2024 , according to the latest figures from the Reuters agency.
This change in status would allow the future tenant of the White House to use means similar to those used to fight terrorism. A modification which would pose a sovereignty problem for the Mexican State. “President Trump has made it known that if Mexico does not clean up its house, a military intervention by the United States on Mexican soil should not be ruled out,” sworries Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky, director of the Latin America observatory of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.
Questioned in the same survey carried out for The CountryMexicans are clear: 58% of them are against American intervention on their soil to fight organized crime. “Pretending that we are going to fight the cartels by deploying American coercive action on Mexican soil is nonsense, explains Bertrand Monnet, professor at Edhec and head of the Criminal Risk Management chair. If the United States intervenes, it will cause violence to explode.” In response to Donald Trump's statements, the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, set limits in a speech on December 23. “The drugs are consumed in the United States and the weapons come from there, but we collaborate and work together and we will never submit,” she declared.
Weapons named El Jefe ou The Scream
The head of state affirms that 70% of the weapons circulating illegally in the country come from the United States, and for good reason: it is difficult to obtain a weapon legally in Mexico since the country only has two gun stores. weapons, according to the American daily USA Today. The cornerstone of crime in the country, arms trafficking is a major subject of discord between the two states. On several occasions since 2021, the Mexican government has taken on the American arms industry in court, accusing it of using marketing strategies with the aim of selling weapons to cartels. Named models The Boss or The Scream were notably sold with inscriptions such as “better to die standing than to live on your knees”an expression traditionally attributed to Mexican revolutionaries. Procedures which bore fruit, since on January 22, 2024, the United States Court of Appeals rendered an appeal judgment in favor of the Mexican government.
If the regulation of the sale of arms in the United States appears to be one of the solutions to stem the violence on the other side of the border, it nevertheless remains impossible to have voted for by the institutions of the leading world power. . “The relationship with firearms must first change in the United States, but the pressure from arms manufacturers is so strong that those who tried to legislate have backed down.explains Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky, of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. Of all the American presidents, only Obama had taken a first step towards co-responsibility between the two countries, before being slowed down by pressure from the arms industries.”
Typical blackmail strategy
If relations between American and Mexican leaders have not always been cordial, Claudia Sheinbaum is currently viewed favorably by her new American counterpart, who will take office on January 20. A consideration which could be explained by its direct handling of the problem, which intends to regain power in its territory thanks to a program aimed at solidifying the institutions. “Claudia Sheinbaum is finally putting in the means, it’s courageous, says Bertrand Monnet from Edhec. She works on the reconquest of territories held by narcos.”
At the same time, Donald Trump is still threatening to impose significant customs duties on Mexican companies if nothing is put in place by the Mexican government to fight against the export of drugs to the United States. A typical blackmail strategy of the former president, which could prove counterproductive. “The increase in customs duties will push traders to head towards cartels and the black market”fears Bertrand Monnet. Thus risking perpetuating the cycle of violence.
