After months of decline, French greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are on the rise again. In the third quarter, they increased by 0.5% over one year, after a drop of 5% and 2.2% during the first two quarters, according to data published Friday December 27 by Citepa, the mandated organization to draw up the country’s carbon footprint. Over the first nine months of the year, emissions remained down 2.4%, excluding carbon sinks. For comparison, last year over the same period of time, the decline was 6%. And the year 2023 ended with a drop in emissions of 5.8% compared to 2022.
2024 therefore promises to be a less good year. This slowdown “reminds us that we must not let our guard down”, even if “fortunately (he) still leaves us on the right trajectory”underlined Friday on RTL the Minister of Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher. “Given the efforts we have made over the past two years, we are not falling behind.” on the objective of reducing France’s emissions by 55% by 2030, she added.
+11.8% for construction
The slowdown in the decline in emissions over nine months comes from the building and transport sectors, whose emissions have started to rise again in recent months. Concerning transport, this increase is mainly due to an increase in road traffic emissions (+1.1% over the quarter). In this sector, Agnès Pannier-Runacher once again raised the hypothesis of a tightening of the conditions governing the renewal of companies’ automobile fleets. “Companies buy half as many electric cars as households and therefore they are not playing the game. We will have to push them to play the game.she said.
But it is above all the construction sector which weighs down the balance sheet for the third quarter, with an increase of 11.8%. This strong rebound comes from the increase in emissions associated with the heating of residential and tertiary buildings in September 2024.
On the good news side, domestic air transport saw its emissions reduced by 4.1% in the third quarter, amplifying the decline already observed in 2023 (-3.5%). In the 3rd quarter, the energy production and industry sectors still contributed to the dynamic reduction of emissions (-12.9%), due to the reduced use of fossil fuels. For agriculture, Citepa specifies that “only part of the changes in sector emissions” is estimated and the “quasi-stagnation of emissions (+0.3%)” over first nine months “remains a partial overview“.
“Electrochoc”
“This should be an electric shock for the new government”reacts on the Bluesky network Anne Bringault, the Director of Programs at the Climate Action Network. “Stop & go policies on the ecological transition, such as the postponement of energy sieve renovation obligations and the reduction in public support (for electric vehicles, renovation or the green fund) unfortunately have very concrete effects on carbon emissions. France’s greenhouse gases“, she adds. She also points to a Ministry of Ecological Transition”amputee transport, housing, energy, and, as before, without agriculture or industry“. “What levers remain to reduce GHG emissions?“, she asks.
Citepa recalls that in 2023, all sectors had contributed to the drop in emissions. “This multifactorial dynamic must continue to maintain a decarbonization trajectory compatible with the objectives of the National Low-Carbon Strategy.” (SNBC), underlines the organization. The reduction trajectory to reach the new provisional target of 270 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2030 excluding carbon sinks, indicated in the draft SNBC 3, implies a necessary reduction of 4.7% per year (i.e. -16 Mt CO2e/ year on average) between 2022 and 2030.
France, which must align with the European objective of -55% emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 and which aims for carbon neutrality in 2050, had failed to respect its first carbon budget (2015-2018) and had revised its ambitions downwards in 2019. The results of SNBC 2 should be drawn up in 2025.
