Trump wants the Panama Canal back. But it can only do this through war

Less than 30 days left until the settlement of Donald Trump and the newly elected president already has a clear idea of ​​what he wants or does not want in Washington's future trade relations. Among the many recipients of his jeremiads is the small but mighty state of Panamatargeted by the hard line that the newly elected president will inaugurate in January.

Teddy Roosevelt he once declared that the Panama Canal was “one of the feats of which the people of this republic will boast with the greatest pride“. More than a century later, The Donald announced that if things don't change after he takes office next month, “we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States of America, completely, promptly and without discussion“. In light of the turbulence in the Middle East, the canal has gradually taken on even greater importance since the Suez Canal risks quickly turning into a cul-de-sac for commercial ships. The destiny between the two canals is closely linked: Ferdinand de Lesseps, the “great Frenchman” who was the creator of the Suez venture, was the same man who encouraged the construction of the Panama Canal, but who saw his project fail to connect the Atlantic to the Pacific.

But let's get back to Trump. Can Washington really “take back all that is itss”? No. Unless declare war on PanamaIn fact, Trump cannot regain control of a channel that the United States decided to cede in the Seventies.

At the time of the events, Panama was a province of Colombiawhich refused to ratify a 1901 treaty granting the United States the right to build the canal. In response, Roosevelt sent US warships on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Panama. The United States even wrote, well in advance, a constitution that would be ready after Panamanian independence, guaranteeing American forces “the right to intervene in any part of Panama to restore public peace and constitutional order“. In November 1903, Panama declared de facto independence without bloodshed. The canal was inaugurated in 1914but almost immediately the validity of American control was called into question, leading to what the country called the “generational struggle” to regain control.

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The United States gave up the right to intervene in Panama in the 1930s, but in the 1970s, Washington became entangled in a complex negotiation with Panama to cede control of the canal. The Carter administration worked with the government of Omar Torrijos. The two sides finally decided to submit two treaties to the United States Senate: the “Treaty of permanent neutrality” and the “Panama Canal Treaty”. The former continues to be valid, and grants the United States the right to act to keep the canal open and secure. The second stipulated that the United States would relinquish the canal to Panama on December 31, 1999. It worked. Even when George Bush senior invase Panama to remove Manuel Noriega. In 2006, through a referendum, an important one was authorized channel expansion to accommodate modern cargo ships. The work was completed in 2016 at a cost of more than that 5.2 billion dollars.

But what is true in the grievances on Trump? Shipping prices have increased due to the drought last year that affected the canal's locks, forcing Panama to drastically reduce maritime traffic and raise tariffs. The result between the El Niño phenomenon and climate change has brought the water level to an all-time low, leading management authorities to reduce the number of passages. This has created a spiral of rising costs and delays in supply chains. The concomitant Suez crisis he did the rest. This leads numerous experts in the sector to predict the “death” of the channel in favor of alternative routes which, for some time, have begun to be examined. The canal was not designed to withstand prolonged droughts, being tied to a system of rainfall-dependent artificial lakes. The drought of lago Gatunin recent months, has also hit the Panamanian population hard, who earn half of their income from here drinking water supply.

While the rains have largely returned, Panama says they may be needed future rate increases to finance improvements to meet the needs of modern navigation. But the entire world of international trade has been trying for some time to explore other alternative ways and send Panama into retirement. Meanwhile, the small state defends itself from Washington's attacks: all users of the canal, after all, are subject to the same fees, although they vary based on the size of the vessel and other factors such as draft. “As President, I want to express precisely that every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area belongs to PANAMA and will continue to do so“said President José Raúl Mulino in a statement. “The sovereignty and independence of our country are non-negotiable“he added.

It's unclear how seriously Trump is taking his threat to regain control of the channel, although last weekend was not the first time he denounced the “unfair treatment” for the United States. How would the president-elect force a sovereign and friendly country to cede its territory? Mystery.