The construction sector will lose 30,000 jobs in 2024, far from the 90,000 destructions anticipated by the Building Federation, which nevertheless fears a catch-up in 2025.
Many signals are red. For more than two years, new real estate has been experiencing a serious crisis, bringing with it the construction industry. Activity in the sector should decline by 6.6% in volume in 2024, estimated the French Building Federation (FFB) on Tuesday, December 17.
Activity is weighed down by the halt in new construction, particularly housing (-22% in volume). In detail, after -25% in 2023, housing starts continue to fall, at -14% to reach a historic low of 250,000 units.
“We have to go back to 1954 to find such a level!” exclaims the president of the FFB, Olivier Salleron.
Only improvement-maintenance is progressing at +1% in volume, or at a rate half that of 2023. “In the current context of climate objectives, we should have a lot more renovation,” underlines Olivier Salleron.
The renovation sector had to face the failed reform of MaPrimeRénov’ over the first five months of 2024, but also the new decline in transactions of old housing with immediate work.
The “great slide” in employment in 2025?
Despite these catastrophic figures, employment has not collapsed. Employment will only fall by 2.2% in 2024, or 30,000 full-time equivalent salaried and temporary positions lost. A much lower level compared to the forecasts of the FFB, which anticipated the elimination of 90,000 jobs just a few months ago.
“In the immediate future, this is good news,” reacts the Federation. The damage is also limited in terms of business failures which “only” progress by around 25% in 2024, “returning to their level of 2016, a fairly good year in its time”.
But this maintenance of employment has come at the expense of productivity. Olivier Salleron points out the “risk of weakening companies with a payroll unrelated to the expected level of activity”. He therefore fears a postponement to 2025, and anticipates 100,000 job losses if a new finance bill does not succeed.
Without support measures, “in 2025, there will be a big drop in employment”, warns the president of the FFB.
“The preceding fragile forecasting exercise will have to be revised once the finance law for 2025 has been passed,” he concedes all the same.
“PLF for housing: failed again”
The Federation regretted that the previous government’s finance bill could not be passed. “We could have titled this presentation ‘PLF for housing: failed again’,” lamented Olivier Salleron.
“There was everything needed in the finance law to give back this influx to citizens to reinvest in real estate,” he added, repeating that it is “crazy” for him to leave companies without visibility.
He therefore calls for a vote as quickly as possible on a new Budget which would provide for the expansion of the zero-interest loan, an exemption for one year from inheritance/donation taxes up to 100,000 euros for the acquisition of new housing. , the reduction in the Solidarity Rent Reduction (RLS) and the thawing of the aid envelope for the energy renovation of social housing.
In addition, the FFB requests that the budget of MaPrimeRénov’ be protected at today’s level, i.e. 4.2 billion euros. Furthermore, she hopes that the policy of administrative simplification will be continued and that work will be undertaken on the status of the private lessor.
