«Real estate is 50% math and 50% psychology!» Maître Frédéric Violeau, notary in Caen (14), does not believe he is saying this so well. Credit rates and prices are falling and French incomes are rising. And yet, buyers are still hesitant to take the plunge. The fault is political, fiscal and financial instability. What budget for 2025? Will transfer taxes increase? Will the housing tax make a comeback? Will the zero-interest loan be expanded? What taxation for furnished rentals? “We have had enough of all these increasing taxes on owners!enrages Damien, 37, who has put his real estate project on hold and even more. We must avoid this market. Emmanuel Macron defeated him and the debt will do the rest in explosive taxation.»
Consequence: housing sales have plummeted by 17% over the last 12 months, according to the annual report of notaries in France. Only 780,000 transactions were recorded in one year. Unheard of in 10 years! “Real estate has become a user market: the French buy housing because they need itdeciphers Me Violeau. We have reached a low point. We hope that the recovery will be for 2025.» But for that, the French need a “psychological trigger», according to Me Élodie Frémont, president of the real estate statistics commission of notaries of Greater Paris. “The turning point will come with the return of political stability», adds this Parisian notary.
The Nice exception
What about prices? They are falling everywhere in France. Well almost everywhere. Some cities are still resisting this generalized decline. Half of the 18 municipalities scrutinized by notaries showed a drop of less than 5% over one year for apartments (see below). Same, well almost, (8/18), for houses (see below).
The best example is Nice, which set a price record in 2024: 4,720 euros per m² for the purchase of an apartment. It is the only city of the 18 analyzed by the notaries where prices have not fallen (+0.1% over the last 12 months). The famous Nice exception. Consequence: the City of Angels has become the second most expensive city in France. Local buyers, for the most part, are second-time buyers who have a comfortable financial base and have less recourse to real estate credit to purchase housing. Add an increasingly present foreign clientele and you have the ingredients for vigorous prices. The share of foreigners in real estate purchases in Nice amounts to 12%, according to French notaries. Never seen since 2011/2012! Conversely, that of local buyers is at its lowest in 10 years: 55%. Specificities which did not prevent house prices from falling on the Côte d’Azur.
Swiss
