Par Yaakov Lappin
Israel’s acceptance of a ceasefire agreement on the war front with Hezbollah in Lebanon constitutes a strategic “gamble”. Israel will need to adopt a multi-dimensional approach to the agreement, based on improving defensive capabilities and, on the offensive side, committing to proactively preventing the entrenchment of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. This strategy, while compelling, is not without paradoxes, particularly regarding the potential for escalation that could follow Israel’s implementation of the agreement.
A key aspect of Israel’s attempt at a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah on the northern front appears to be a series of imminent and significant upgrades to its air defense systems. The arrival of the Iron Beam laser system, developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems in collaboration with Elbit, marks a revolutionary advance in Israel’s defensive arsenal. Integrated directly into existing Iron Dome batteries, in service since 2011, the Iron Beam uses a 100 kilowatt laser to intercept rockets, mortars, unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) and missiles, at speeds of light.
One of the most compelling advantages of the Iron Beam is its cost-effectiveness. Each laser shot costs only a few dollars (the price of the electricity needed), compared to around $50.000 for each Tamir interceptor missile used by the Iron Dome. This economic efficiency breaks the financial advantage previously enjoyed by terrorists firing rockets and drones. The Iron Beam not only reduces operating costs, but also does not require ammunition replacement, ensuring continued protection.
Additionally, the laser system offers rapid response capabilities, reaching targets in seconds, much faster than kinetic interceptors. If it can be established that the Iron Beam destroys threats before they cross Israeli airspace, it could allow the Israeli Air Force and Rear Command [Pikud Haoref] of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to reduce the number of disruptive rocket warnings. in the future. Although the Iron Beam has a range of between five and six miles and can only engage a single threat at a time, it complements the Iron Dome, which can intercept multiple threats simultaneously at longer ranges. The combination of these systems strengthens Israel’s multi-layered defense strategy.
This advance opened the door to future developments, including mobile ground-based lasers to protect maneuvering military units and aerial systems capable of intercepting threats above the cloud cover of enemy territory. An aerial laser system developed by Elbit has already proven itself. In 2021, this system shot down unmanned aerial vehicles flying at an altitude of 3,000 feet. [20 mètres]. If development proceeds as planned, the aerial laser is expected to have an interception range of around 1,000 kilometers.
In addition to the Iron Beam, the Israel Defense Forces have tested radar-guided Vulcan cannons. The M61 Vulcan cannon, capable of firing around 6.000 rounds per minute and mounted on armored personnel carriers, aims to counter the growing drone threat. Hezbollah takes advantage of its proximity to Israel to exploit detection loopholes, flying low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicles from the valleys of southern Lebanon to evade existing interception systems such as Iron Dome. The Vulcan guns are expected to strengthen Israel’s short-range air defense, protecting sensitive areas and filling gaps in current capabilities.
On the offensive front, Israel is determined to capitalize on its recent gains against Hezbollah by preserving the new security reality in northern Israel. This involves an active policy of precise airstrikes and targeted ground operations aimed at preventing Hezbollah from regaining a foothold in southern Lebanon, including preventing Hezbollah and its Iranian supporters from attempting to rebuild their invasion bases in the villages Shiites from southern Lebanon and rebuild their bases. arsenal of rockets. By continually disrupting Iranian supply routes to Hezbollah (whether land corridors, air smuggling operations, or sea channels from Syria and Lebanese ports); Israel seeks to hinder Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its terrorist arsenal and infrastructure.
A crucial aspect of this strategy is US recognition of Israel’s right to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, effectively giving it “strength” for the first time. Recognizing that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have been completely unable to implement the resolution; Israel commits to taking unilateral measures to prevent the resurgence of Hezbollah if necessary, and reserves its right to operational freedom.
By adapting tactics from other domains, the IDF would, in this scenario, aim to “move the grass,” that is, conduct periodic intelligence-driven operations to disrupt hostile activities and prevent the buildup of strengths.
However, this proactive attitude, although welcome, presents a paradox. Although Israel’s law enforcement measures would be designed to prevent the re-emergence of long-term security threats, they could also lead Hezbollah to retaliate, which could lead to escalation and further shelling. rockets in the north in a short period of time. Hezbollah still retains residual firepower capabilities, although it is estimated that more than 80% of its arsenal has been destroyed. Future aggressive Israeli operations could trigger attacks on communities in northern Israel.
This issue requires careful consideration by the Israeli Cabinet and IDF leadership. If future crucial actions aimed at preventing Hezbollah’s rearmament trigger the very hostilities it seeks to prevent, a return to higher-intensity conflict will likely be necessary. However, this scenario is not inevitable in the short term.
By decisively weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities and preventing its return to southern Lebanon, Israel can reshape the security landscape in its favor. This will require not only military action, but also the exploitation of defensive technological advances to maintain a strategic advantage. The successful integration of systems such as the Iron Beam and Vulcan cannons represents an important step toward neutralizing emerging threats such as drones, which Hezbollah has used over the past year to target sensitive locations in attacks which caused painful victims.
Israel’s strategic “gamble” to establish a new reality in Lebanon will likely become a complex and multifaceted effort. By strengthening its defensive capabilities with advanced technologies and taking proactive offensive measures to prevent the resurgence of Hezbollah, Israel aims to secure its northern border and protect its citizens. However, this strategy must circumvent the paradox that enforcement can lead to escalation. Future attempts to rebuild Hezbollah and Iran are a certainty as long as the radical Shiite Islamic Republic is ruled by its current jihadist regime.
source: BESA – Start of the Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
