Two factors are combining to bring about the end of the Ukrainian war in 2025. The first is the return of Donald Trump to the White House on January 20. Without the assistance of the United States, the continuation of the war is impossible on the Ukrainian side. Since April 2022, they have spent nearly $100 billion in aid. But Trump promised to end the conflict “in twenty-four hours”. Ukraine will therefore be the business of the Europeans, who will be responsible for its security and its reconstruction…
The second is due to the exhaustion of the belligerents: a million dead and wounded on both sides! The population of Ukraine has shrunk (30 million compared to 52 million in 1991 when the country gained independence). She no longer has enough men, nor enough weapons. And his army has been retreating for months. no one believes in it anymore « victoire »if victory means expulsion of the Russian army from the 20% of Ukrainian territory that it occupies. Zelensky has just recognized this, referring to the reconquest of Donbass and Crimea, already annexed by Moscow, “through diplomatic channels”.
Putin's relative failure
As for Putin, his goal of regaining control of the entire Ukraine through “special operation” of February 2022 failed. Worse, the Ukrainian nation has become deeply anti-Russian. He will have to be content with “Novorossia”these eastern parts of Ukraine already occupied, but at the cost of considerable human losses. In the absence of a general mobilization that the Kremlin seeks to avoid, Putin has decided to call on North Korean or even Houthi “allied” infantrymen… Other black spots: the invasion of Ukraine, supposedly blocking kyiv's entry into NATO, caused an enlargement of the alliance to include Sweden and Finland, with the Baltic Sea becoming NATO; and, as a bonus, the vassalization of Russia by its new Chinese ally in the face of Western sanctions.
The terms of an agreement
It is in this context that contacts began, discreetly, between the Trump team and the Kremlin, to identify the broad outlines of an agreement that will go over the heads of the Ukrainians… and the Europeans. It will resume the compromise that the Russians and Ukrainians reached in March-April 2022, a few months after the start of the war, under Turkish mediation.
First a status of neutrality for Ukraine, a Russian requirement since its independence thirty-three years ago
Two main points. Firstly, a status of neutrality for Ukraine, a Russian requirement since its independence thirty-three years ago, which is one of the central causes of the conflict. For Moscow, Ukraine cannot join NATO. However, its membership is now refused both by the outgoing Biden administration and by Trump: there is no question of risking a direct confrontation with Moscow which would trigger a Third World War… But it will still be necessary to convince Zelensky, who is guaranteeing the famous Article V of NATO a prerequisite, and several Central European countries behind Poland who wish to see Ukraine in NATO.
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Gain ground
The second point is the exchange of peace for territories, which Zelensky now accepts, followed, and this is new, by a majority (admittedly weak according to Gallup) of Ukrainian opinion. Of course, this border, like the Russian annexation, will not be legally recognized by the allied capitals. Still, the demarcation line will reflect the military reality on the ground. The Russians will try to gain even more between now and then, notably all of the four oblasts of Donbass, which they do not entirely occupy. Opposite, the allies will endeavor to help the Ukrainians with new arms deliveries. To guarantee the ceasefire and a peace agreement, the Europeans will probably be called upon to deploy forces in the zone which will be demilitarized, or even in Ukraine itself, a subject which is beginning to be cautiously discussed behind the scenes in Brussels.
Negotiate
Other sensitive points, already raised during the 2022 negotiations, will have to be resolved: the Russians will demand drastic reductions in the Ukrainian army, kyiv security guarantees from its allies; the Russians will ask, in exchange for their agreement to Ukraine's entry into the EU (which was the cause of the second Maidan of 2014, the overthrow of former president Yanukovych, followed by the invasion of Crimea and of the start of the Donbass war), the lifting of sanctions. As we approach the negotiating table, each side will seek to improve its positions. Ukraine will want to intensify its strikes on Russian territory thanks to the long-range ATACMS missiles that Biden has just delivered after months of hesitation. And Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons. Gearing remains possible…
As for the Europeans, they will pay for having failed to prevent war through negotiation or deterrence.
In the coming weeks, Trump, the master of “the art of the deal”the title of his work published in 1987, will therefore have to put pressure both on Zelensky, who will have to renounce NATO, and on Putin, who is in a position of strength and will try to obtain from his American counterpart the maximum concessions in Ukraine and elsewhere…
Europe: the big losers
As for the Europeans, they will pay for having failed to prevent war through negotiation or deterrence, by drugging themselves behind Germany with cheap Russian gas. They will pay for joining America from April 2022, in this undeclared proxy war against Russia, forgetting to think about the long-term strategic consequences, and even their goals. Ukraine's defeat will also be theirs; It will be up to them to finance the reconstruction of the country, to the tune of 700 billion euros, to which will be added the hundreds of billions now required for the massive rearmament of Europeans in the face of a Russia that has once again become potentially dangerous. A poorly crafted agreement is likely to be the result of a compromise decided above their heads. A compromise which, as Bainville wrote the day after the Treaty of Versailles, would lead to “sew up the wound leaving the infection inside”
