The fall of Michel Barnier's team this Wednesday puts France in a particularly uncertain situation. Find all the answers to the questions you ask yourself thanks to our selection of articles.
D-day for the Barnier team. This Wednesday, December 4, the National Assembly spoke out during a session that promised to be stormy on the two motions of censure tabled alongside the Social Security finance bill (PLFSS). The troops of the left like those of the National Rally finally brought down the government of Michel Barnier. Taxes, pensions, public finances… Censorship will have serious consequences for the French. To see more clearly, Le Figaro invites you to rediscover our decryptions on this explosive file.
Pensions: censorship, a good deal for pensions?
Voted this Wednesday, the government's censorship automatically leads to the rejection of the PLFSS. With a direct effect on pensions: “The main beneficiaries [de la censure] will be large companies, very rich households and retirees, especially those receiving medium and high pensions”estimated Gilbert Cet, president of the Retirement Orientation Council.
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Censorship: these thorny points of the social security budget on which the government is betting its future
The text at the origin of the fall of the government includes numerous points on which the oppositions and the majority disagreed. Employer contributions, pensions, health expenses… However, numerous modifications have been made by parliamentarians, in order to reconcile headwinds. Without success.
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Individuals, businesses: who are the winners and losers from censorship?
If the Minister of the Economy, Antoine Armand, believed that “all sectors will lose”censorship will not have the same consequences for all French people. Some thus risk doing well by avoiding, for example, a strengthening of taxation aimed at making them participate in the national effort to reduce the French deficit. Conversely, others, like farmers, are drawing a line under State commitments in their favor.
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Taxation: towards an increase in income tax for nearly 18 million households
The rejection by Parliament of the 2025 draft budget as well as the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) leads to a cascade of unpredictable events, some of which could well affect household wallets. This is, in any case, the flagship argument brandished by the right and the center since Monday evening to castigate Marine Le Pen. “She says she wants to work on the purchasing power of the French, but how can she agree to bring down this government, and therefore this budget, even if it means increasing taxes? ?»asked MP (Together for the Republic) Prisca Thevenot on Tuesday at CNews.
According to OFCE calculations, 17.6 million households will see their income tax mechanically increase.
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French employers “dismayed” by censorship
“The Paris 2024 Olympics were the last stand of an old France before the revelation in the eyes of the world of the downgrading of our country” : made by the CEO of a French flagship, these comments sum up the anger and concern of part of French employers. Everyone is now waiting to see how the situation develops, fearing that crises will follow one another: “We have not yet reached the bottom, the situation will get worse”summarizes the pattern of a flagship of the CAC40.
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Towards a financial “storm”?
Questioned on the TF1 set, the Prime Minister estimated that censorship would risk leading to “a storm probably quite serious”. “We already borrow very high interest rates, which we are obliged to respect to finance our debt with Chinese or American investors. They are currently almost at the level of Greece”insisted Michel Barnier. Others, like Marine Le Pen or Eric Coquerel, are more reassuring. So who is right?
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The payment of pensions and social benefits in danger?
Does censorship risk leading to a “social shutdown”? “Depriving the French of a Social Security budget means leaving only a few weeks of cash for Urssaf to pay pensions, reimburse healthcare and finance taxes”recently warned the Social Security budget rapporteur in the National Assembly, Yannick Neuder (LR). Right?
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Police, education… A decision with serious consequences for public service
The government will not be the only loser. If the budgetary texts it contained contained a number of savings «salty», which would have forced certain ministries or sectors to tighten their belts, they also included several measures «sweet», which will also be swept away. The decision will therefore not be “not neutral for public service” and agents, warned the Minister of Civil Service, Guillaume Kasbarian.
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Can censorship put France into “shutdown”?
“Financial crisis”, “economic and social crisis”, “bankruptcy”… Recently, many political leaders have sounded the alarm on the consequences of censorship, which could, according to them, lead to a scenario of blocking, like the shutdown American style. A credible threat?
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