For several months, nuclear deterrence has occupied the lexical field of the media and agitated diplomatic relations. Even if the threat brandished by Vladimir Putin remains as theoretical as it is rhetorical, what procedure would be initiated if a country one day decided to use the ultimate weapon? The evening edition reveals the underbelly of the nuclear protocol.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly raised the specter of nuclear weapons to threaten Western countries. He is not the only one to raise this highly flammable argument in an attempt to influence the balance of power. In October 2024, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said he would not hesitate to use atomic weapons in the event of an attack on North Korea. As early as 2016, before his first election, Donald Trump himself had increased the pressure on Russia. “If necessary, there will be an arms race. We will surpass [nos ennemis] at every stage and we will survive them”, he insisted.
The rhetoric of heads of state around this threat is therefore not new. All the great powers – including France – use it to keep their potential enemies at bay, according to the principle of “nuclear deterrence”. So, although Vladimir Putin has been increasing the pressure in recent months, the possibility of taking action remains highly improbable, according to François Géré, director of Ifas (French Institute of Strategic Analysis) and historian specializing in nuclear strategy, questioned by the evening edition. “No government seriously considers engaging in all-out nuclear war since it would be mutually devastating, he says. Any decision to use nuclear weapons is only made within a constraint, the response of the adversary. »
However, what would happen if, one day, the leader of a nuclear power decided to press the red button, at the end of an uncontrollable escalation? What protocol would he follow? And how would the targeted country react? Decryption.
“Diplomatic relations broken”
As a reminder, nine countries currently have nuclear weapons: Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, Pakistan, India, North Korea and Israel. Russia and the United States between them have about 88 percent of the world’s nuclear arsenal, according to the Federation of American Scientists. And in the arms race, Russia comes first. It holds 5,580 nuclear warheads (47% of the world stock) compared to 5,044 for the United States.
If the nightmare scenario of a country unleashing a nuclear weapon were to occur, a wave of diplomatic exchanges will necessarily have been organized beforehand. “This would mean that diplomatic relations would have deteriorated so much that they would be severed,” analyzes François Géré. The decision to use nuclear weapons will therefore not really be a surprise. “It would be heralded by a whole series of phenomena affecting nuclear states and their allies, on a diplomatic and politico-strategic level. » The escalation of diplomatic relations would reach its peak the moment the shot was ordered.
Determine the conditions of the firing order
Before the order itself is launched, the leader of the country in question would first have to decide on the conditions of the shot. Which missile to fire? How much ? Towards which target(s)? For this, the heads of state are supported. “In all nuclear powers, they take advice from their diplomatic and military advisors, describes François Géré. In all nuclear states, the military has a ready list of targets, a nuclear bombing plan already in place. » The imagined targets can be large cities, with the objective of large numbers of human losses, but also submarine bases or military infrastructures.
Once the target(s) are identified and the missile(s) are chosen, the head of state could then order the launch of the shot. Only he can do it. In the collective imagination, he would press the famous “red button”. The reality is less fantasized but just as ceremonial. The key is a transmission system. “Electronic transmissions allowing triggering are secured by access codes and the key to these codes is held by the President and his direct military deputy,” assures the nuclear strategy expert.
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The nuclear briefcase activation procedure
In France, the nuclear codes, which are transmitted from one President to another during the transfer of power, are kept in a suitcase. The latter follows him in all his movements. The famous suitcase “is traditionally worn by a naval officer. She is always with the President, but is rarely filmed,” recalled the British press agency Reuters in 2023. “We don’t really know if this suitcase contains the codes but it is symbolic, it is to send the message that the President can trigger nuclear weapons at any time,” specifies François Géré.
“This briefcase is an electronic communication system with the central command post of the strategic forces. Thanks to it, the Head of State is in contact with the control center where the nuclear weapon activation stations are located, which are themselves in contact with the nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). ) strategic on patrol. » Thus, the activation of the code by the President will be immediately transmitted to the control center, which can trigger the missile(s).
At the same time, a crisis unit can be convened, both in the shooting country and in the targeted country. In France, it would meet in the “PC Jupiter”. This bunker installed in the basement of the Élysée is capable of resisting a nuclear attack. This is also the case in other nuclear powers. “In the Kremlin, all the meeting and council rooms, which are on the surface, exist exactly the same, 300 meters under the concrete of the building. »
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Very quick implementation
All this is very fast, “ less than a minute”, says François Géré. Then there is the fuel ignition time, “which takes three or five minutes”, Then “the ascent into atmospheric space and the extra-atmospheric journey lasts about fifteen minutes”, before the descent, “between three and five minutes”. In the case of a shot at a distance of approximately 3,000 km from its target, for example, it would take around twenty minutes between the moment the order is given and the bomb explodes.
“Yet there are hypersonic missiles flying at extremely low altitudes, which have speeds between ten and twenty times the speed of sound. » On November 21, Moscow fired a new type of hypersonic missile called “Orechnik” at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. In the process, Vladimir Putin announced the mass production of this new weapon, marking a further step towards warning the West. “For the moment, these missiles are not nuclear”, indicates François Géré. But they are designed to carry a nuclear warhead.
For their part, the United States continues to carry out tests as part of its sacrosanct nuclear deterrence. As recently as the evening of the US presidential election, November 5, 2024, US forces fired an unarmed “Minuteman III” missile into the Pacific, reports Le Figaro. Quite a symbol as Donald Trump, re-elected president, will be the ultimate decision-maker on the nuclear program for the next four years.
Defense systems to intercept a missile
Faced with a nuclear threat, would the targeted country be aware that a missile is about to hit their territory? “If it is a surface-to-surface ballistic weapon, there are satellites in space for detecting missile launches making it possible to identify the time and place from which the launch originated. Thanks to the analysis of its trajectory, we will be able to identify the target. » Unless this missile “is fired from several independent nuclear warheads, which instead of targeting a specific location, can fall almost anywhere up to 200 km away”, illustrates the expert in nuclear strategy. If the weapon is fired from a submarine, it is also more difficult to spot quickly.
As for the interception of these missiles, François Géré is pessimistic. “The Americans are developing anti-missile defense but the results, for the moment, are very weak and will only be able to provide effective solutions within twenty to thirty years. »
