The current political situation raises major uncertainties for the future of energy prices. As the no-confidence motion threatens to overthrow the government, the impact on gas and electricity bills raises questions.
- The current political instability could have direct repercussions on energy taxation.
- A possible motion of censure calls into question decisions related to taxes on electricity and gas.
- The effects on bills vary depending on the type of energy offer subscribed to by households.
- The situation raises questions about the future of energy reforms and their long-term impact.
The finance law sets the taxes applied to electricity and gas each year, weighing heavily on the amounts to be paid. The initial project provided for a significant increase in the TICFE (domestic tax on final electricity consumption), a tax rising from €32/MWh before the crisis to €21/MWh currently. The government, however, decided, under pressure, to maintain this tax at its pre-crisis level, renouncing a further increase.
Concerning gas, the initial bill did not mention an increase, but amendments in the Senate envisaged increases in the TICGN (domestic tax on the consumption of natural gas), accentuating the uncertainty on this subject. If the motion of censure is adopted, the finance law may not be validated. Such a situation would involve the use of a special tax collection law, based on the previous year's tax levels. For consumers, this would mean maintaining the TICFE at €21/MWh for electricity and an absence of major changes for gas.
An opportunity for price reductions in electricity and gas?
For consumers who have opted for regulated or indexed prices, the current situation could work in their favor. The absence of a tax increase, combined with the gradual drop in prices on the wholesale markets that began two years ago, could result in a significant reduction in bills. This decline, estimated at around 14% from current levels according to recent announcements, offers an encouraging outlook. It would allow these households to better absorb other increases in the cost of living, in a tense economic context. However, the application of these reductions will also depend on the evolution of political decisions and supplier prices.
Conversely, households having subscribed to fixed price offers may not benefit from the benefits linked to the decline in wholesale markets. For them, the stability of taxes at the current level, although a positive element, would not be enough to compensate for the increases already planned in their contracts. These consumers, often seduced by the promise of protection against fluctuations, could discover that their situation exposes them to uncompetitive prices in the current context. This paradox highlights the importance of understanding pricing mechanisms before choosing an offer.
A decisive period for the future of electricity and gas bills
This period of political and legislative instability is of particular importance for household budgets. While some see this impasse as an opportunity for fiscal respite, others fear the consequences of a lasting blockage of reforms. Without a clear framework, suppliers could lack visibility, making it more difficult to establish attractive or competitive offers. In addition, the suspension of tax increases, although advantageous in the short term, could postpone adjustments necessary for the energy transition, fueling a climate of uncertainty for years to come.
Electricity prices, gas prices
