The attack submarine UFAbelonging to the Russian Navy, was detected on November 28 just 148 kilometers from the Philippine coast, off the coast of Mindoro province. The incident, which immediately attracted the attention of Philippine authorities, was confirmed by an official statement from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., calling the incursion aextremely worrying.
According to the first information relayed by the Philippine Daily Inquirerthe Russian submarine emerged briefly in an area claimed by Manila as part of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). This type of maneuver is rare and challenging, both by its nature and its timing.
A region under constant pressure: the role of the Philippines against rival powers
The West Philippine Sea, a strategic area of the vast South China Sea, is regularly the scene of maritime tensions. If Chinese incursions are almost weekly, the presence of a Russian ship in this region marks a unexpected turn in geopolitical balances.
The Philippine archipelago has long been a strategic partner of the United States, placing it in front line in the face of China’s maritime ambitions. But with the arrival of an actor as discreet and unpredictable as Russia, new questions emerge. Moscow could seek to test the limits of the Philippine response, or to signal a strengthened naval alliance with Beijing.
A discreet but effective submarine: the choice of the UFA
The submarine detected, the UFA, belongs to the modernized Kilo class, a series renowned for its low acoustic signature and precise attack capabilities. Designed for shallow water missionsit is particularly suitable for areas such as the South China Sea, where complex seabeds provide camouflage opportunities.
Philippine military experts have expressed concerns about the sophistication of the device. Its presence could indicate a intelligence collection or the simulation of an offensive mission. The Philippines, whose submarine fleet is non-existent, finds itself facing an asymmetric threat that is difficult to counter.
Expected international reactions: a diplomatic line under tension
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. immediately called for an international response to the intrusion. “Any attack on our maritime sovereignty must be firmly denounced,” he declared. This affair could reignite the debate on the need for Manila to modernize its armed forces, a hot topic for several years.
For their part, neither Moscow nor Beijing have yet officially reacted to this incident. Russia, often discreet in its activities in the Asia-Pacific, may seek to downplay the event, while the United States closely monitors the situation, its mutual defense alliance with the Philippines being a pillar of their presence in the region.
A key step for the Philippine strategy
This incident highlights the maritime vulnerability of the Philippines to great military powers. As Manila attempts to assert itself diplomatically in a region under great pressure, the UFA’s incursion could push the country to accelerate its naval modernization program, or even strengthen its regional alliances.
The situation, closely monitored by experts and analysts, could well mark a major turning point in the balance of power in Southeast Asia. It remains to be seen whether this episode will remain isolated or whether other incursions will further complicate the region’s strategic puzzle.
