November 27, 2024. 02:30. Belo Horizonte. Independence Stadium
Brazilian Championship. Day 36
Atletico Mineiro (Belo Horizonte) vs Juventude (Caxias do Sul)
Possible absences: Lyanco, Arana, Mariano, Saravia, Cadu, Scarpa – Sam, Gonsalves, Conti, Peixoto
Following the conclusion of matchday 35, we already know the first relegated team from Serie A – Atletico Goianiense. This club, which is undoubtedly leaving the elite, has failed to perform effectively, despite a workforce and finances which are not the weakest. Soon they will be joined by Cuiabá. Thus, in the last three remaining days, we will only discover the names of two other teams who will play in Serie B next season. In addition, we will see who will be crowned champion and which team will obtain that precious seventh place that allows them to participate in the Copa Libertadores qualifiers.
Atletico Mineiro
Despite most of Matchday 36’s matches taking place on the weekend, Atletico Mineiro are scheduled to face Juventude in midweek. This is for good reason, because on November 30, Gabriel Milito’s team will play the Copa Libertadores final against Botafogo. This match can be considered the most important for Atletico Mineiro in several years (at least). It would be an understatement to say that for many players in this not-so-strong Brazilian team, the Copa Libertadores final might be the only one of their careers.
So, I don’t expect Atletico Mineiro to do ‘everything’ on the pitch to get a win against Juventude. They have a much more crucial match ahead of them. No one will want to risk an injury in the Brazilian Championship that could prevent them from playing in the most decisive match of their life.
Youth
A draw against Cuiabá could greatly complicate Juventude’s situation. A point gave them some distance from Criciúma and Bragantino, but they still have away matches against Atletico Mineiro, São Paulo, and a home match against Cruzeiro to come. In each of these encounters, Juventude will be the underdog, so even two points from these matches would be considered a positive result. The question remains how their competitors will behave in the final days.
It is already known that Atletico Goianiense has been relegated. Cuiabá has a 99% chance of also leaving Serie A. We are still waiting for the names of two other ‘victims’. Relegation candidates include RB Bragantino, Criciúma, Fluminense, Juventude, Grêmio, Vitória, and Atletico Paranaense. Vasco da Gama and Atletico Mineiro are also close to this group, but it has already been calculated in Brazil: the chances that all these clubs can overtake Vasco da Gama and Atletico Mineiro are approaching zero. Given that there are too few matches remaining for such a scenario to be plausible. Let’s consider 43 points as a guarantee that a club avoids relegation to Serie B. Currently, Juventude has 39 points. Right now, I’m having trouble saying where they can get the four points they need. So, I emphasize that they should not only seek to draw somewhere, but also have faith in bad results for their competitors.
Atletico Mineiro vs Juventude: Predicted Compositions:
Atletico Mineiro vs Juventude: Prédiction de l’Auteur
Although Juventude are playing away, bookmakers are giving almost identical odds for the visitors and Atletico Mineiro to win. There is a simple explanation for this. Juventude plays relatively well against such teams, and they are currently playing even slightly better than Atletico Mineiro. However, I have a feeling that this match will end in a draw, as such a result would suit both teams, who cannot afford to lose in these final rounds.
