The appointment of Scott Bessent as head of the US Treasury could well be the catalyst we have been waiting for to calm the dollar's ardor. Technically, the latter is trying to break but if you followed last week?s article, you know that this is not the case. At least for now.
Last week, we alerted you to a possible incursion of the dollar index above its 2023 highs at 107.35. “The Fibonacci analysis allows us to refine things and suggests a possible incursion up to 108.00 without this affecting the prospect of future consolidation. » The index has just hit 108.07 and seems to show signs of calm, thank you Scott, which only need to be confirmed by a break of 106.14. At this time, the most likely scenario would be to remain within the congestion in place for two years with, why not?, a return towards the lower limit. This aggressive scenario would then be compared to a resumption of the ongoing downward trend in bond yields in the United States (see the article here).
Source : Bloomberg
At the same time, we will monitor 1.0335 to stop the bleeding on theEURUSD while the first resistance is located at 1.055/66.
L’USDJPY seems to be calming down after having come close to 156.84 but we will watch 151.50 as the first downward support, only the break of which will confirm the end to the upward trend underway since last September. Same story on theUSDCHF with a first resistance zone around 08963/0.9016 for a first support at 0.8820.
On the commodity currency side, theAUDUSD tries to rebound above 0.6428 but must exceed 0.6555 to open a real rebound potential while the NZDUSD tests support at 0.5850 with first resistance at 0.5944.
