Oil prices have recorded a certain increase in recent days and this continued naturally this Saturday, November 23, 2024. This is explained by the increasingly worrying situation of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin's Russia having sent a seriously threatening message to NATO.
Indeed, the barrel of Brent, the reference for Algerian oil, was displayed at 75.15 dollars, gaining 1.27% around 3:00 p.m. Its American equivalent, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped 1.63% to $71.24. Various analyzes establish a direct link between the rising price of black gold and the dangerous escalation recorded this week in Ukraine, geopolitics having confirmed that it is never far from the evolution of oil prices.
“Crude oil prices have started to rise again due to nervousness between Russia and NATO,” said Andy Lipow, of Lipow Oil Associates, in his responses to Agence France Presse (AFP). The analyst is referring to the latest development in the war in Ukraine consisting of the use by the Russian armed forces of a new missile, designed to carry a nuclear warhead.
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This is because Putin wants to send a clear message to the United States and even to the Europeans who directly support Ukraine in its war against Russia. It must be said that the Americans and the British have also taken an unprecedented step in this conflict, by authorizing Volodymyr Zelensky's Ukraine to use long-range missiles. These are two strikes carried out by Ukraine on Russian soil, using US, ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles, weapons with a range of approximately 300 km.
For the head of the Kremlin, this new stage of the war in Ukraine has taken on “a global character”, in other words, the West is now clearly taking part in this war against Russia. Vladimir Putin is now threatening to strike countries that supply weapons to Ukraine. For Andy Lipow, “the market is taking into account an increased probability of supply disruption”.
That said, according to the same analyst, oil prices do not only depend on geopolitics, but also respond to economic and commercial considerations. This is the case of the drop in demand for oil from China and the hesitation of OPEC+ on a possible continuation of voluntary production reductions. This is what John Evans of PVM Energy thinks, while Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group believes that the market is also watching the rise of the dollar.
