Publicly, rich and developing countries are no closer to an agreement Thursday at the COP29 climate conference in Baku after the publication of a draft described as « caricature » or” insult “but the real negotiations continue behind the scenes to forge the final compromise by Friday.
“This is progressing, it is obvious that this text is not final. It will be radically different, there is space for an agreement”Irish Minister Eamon Ryan told AFP, leaving the coordination meeting of European Union ministers on Thursday morning, during which they discussed their strategy.
The EU is at the center of the game at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), as the world’s largest contributor to climate finance, and thanks to the lines of communication it maintains with both China and vulnerable countries, particularly small island states.
A 10-page draft text was released by Azerbaijan’s COP29 presidency in the early hours, attempting to summarize positions on the new financial aid target the conference is supposed to set. And it is clear that they are still very far away, at least on paper.
The text only indicates « X » instead of amounts, even if these are expressed in “trillions”.
“The text caricatures the positions of developed and developing countries”estimates Joe Thwaites, of the NGO NRDC. “The presidency must propose a third option to reconcile them. »
The absence of figures for rich countries “is an insult to millions of people on the climate change front”reacted Jasper Inventor, head of the Greenpeace International delegation in Baku.
The Kenyan Ali Mohamed, who represents African countries, insists on this absence of figures: “We need developed countries to urgently commit to this. »
More “everyone is working on a deal”confides a veteran of negotiations.
At the COP, no one reveals their real red lines until the last day.
Developed countries today provide around a hundred billion dollars in financial aid to developing countries so that they can adapt to climate change and invest in low-carbon energy. COP29 must set a new aid objective until 2030 or 2035.
The conference is due to end on Friday evening, but few COPs have concluded on time.
Trillions of billions
The first option of the text published Thursday reflects the demands of developing countries. Without giving a precise figure, she asks that « X » thousands of billions of dollars per year are provided by the public money of the rich countries currently obliged to contribute according to UN texts – mainly Europe, the United States and Japan – and by associated private funds, “over the period 2025-2035”and mainly in the form of donations, rather than loans.
That is much more than the 100 billion that rich countries had committed to providing over the period 2020-2025. An unrealistic option for rich countries, especially in times of budgetary tightening.
Especially since this option does not provide for any expansion of the list of contributors to countries like China, Singapore or Qatar.
The second option summarizes the point of view of rich countries: the financial objective would be “an increase in global finance for climate action” has « X » trillions of dollars per year “by 2035”.
But this objective would include “all sources of finance”including public money from each country in the world, private funds or even new global taxes, for example on aviation or maritime transport.
“This new text presents both ends of each camp without leaving much room for compromise”commented Li Shuo, expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute think tank.
The initiative now falls to the Azerbaijani presidency of the conference. It will have to find the right balance to submit to the nearly 200 countries of the COP an acceptable text, which will allow everyone to return home. “with an equal level of discontent”in the words of Azerbaijani chief negotiator, Yaltchine Rafiev, to AFP.
