In France, the dissolution of the National Assembly since June 9 has caused a phenomenon that its instigator could have done without: the rapid devaluation of Emmanuel Macron’s political capital. For almost three weeks, his troops and allies have openly questioned his choice, distanced themselves, and refused to join in an announced rout. The phenomenon has not escaped the notice of other countries, and is already eroding the voice of Paris in Europe and around the world.
«Emmanuel Macron remains the president of France, but his personal prestige and the image of the country are damaged by this maneuver very little understood abroad, considered thoughtless and imprudent, and which will turn against him” notes Pascal Boniface, director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations. However, a weakening internally will not fail, he believes, to result in a loss of stature abroad: “You have to be strong internally to be listened to internationally. A head of state who does not give the impression of holding the reins has less credibility. Emmanuel Macron’s flair will be called into question. »
For the moment, the dissolution has not yet produced any visible effects on the international scene, apart from a certain fading of the level of representation of France during certain meetings. “ An effect on Franco-Ukrainian dialogue at the governmental level is observed », Remarks Aliona Getmantchouk, director of the New Europe Center think tank in kyiv. Example in mind: the absence at the Berlin conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine on June 11 and 12 of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Stéphane Séjourné, replaced by Pierre Heilbronn, France’s special envoy for aid and reconstruction of Ukraine.
Speaking with one voice
Was Stéphane Séjourné busy, two days after the dissolution, with his other duties as secretary of the presidential party? Joined by The cross, the Quai d’Orsay does not comment, contenting itself with asserting that such withdrawals are not rare. However, this replacement was noted on the Ukrainian side. “ Our government was not very happy about this absence.confide Aliona Getmanchouk. I wouldn’t say it damages the relationship, but it does influence the intensity of the dialogue. » It is a safe bet that the agenda of the Minister of Foreign Affairs will continue to be weighed down for several more weeks by the electoral sequence.
And then? The verdict of the ballot boxes is not yet known, but a cohabitation or a “technical government” will blur whatever happens the image of stability and readability hitherto associated with France. A technical government with a shifting majority would give the image of a France that is neither governable nor illustrious.believes Pascal Boniface. As for a victory for the National Rally, it will weaken France’s image because other European countries are not in favor of it and will show less enthusiasm in launching and continuing cooperation with us. »
Above all, it is France’s ability to speak with one voice that is overshadowed by the prospect of cohabitation. With all due respect to Marine Le Pen, the primacy of the President of the Republic in military matters is not at all “honorary”, as she maintained on Thursday, June 27. But in the area of foreign policy, certain points could be more easily contested, and cause a rebalancing between the presidency and the Quai d’Orsay, marginalized in recent years by Emmanuel Macron in favor of the diplomatic cell of the Élysée.
Loss of initiative capacity
If he were to reach Matignon, much will depend on Jordan Bardella’s choice to opt for consensus or confrontation with Emmanuel Macron. The putative prime minister of the RN could thus try to call into question the fact that the President of the Republic represents France at the European Council, despite the practice respected during the three previous cohabitations. The National Rally, in the event of victory, also claims to be able to appoint the next French commissioner in Brussels.
This appointment, like that of the permanent representative of France to the European Union, “ will be subject to negotiation “, predicts former diplomat Michel Foucher. This specialist in European affairs wants to be cautious, and does not believe in the sidelining of the head of state in the event of cohabitation, noting that he “ retains control of defense policy, foreign affairs, and European affairs “. However, he is concerned about the disorganization of the state apparatus which could result from cohabitation with the RN, and the difficult arbitrations over the appointments of directors of administrations or departing senior diplomats, such as ambassador to Moscow or permanent representative to the UN.
«The state apparatus will be very disorganized, very dividedfears Michel Foucher. My fear is that we will struggle to cope with the unexpected, that we will endure events instead of trying to control them as we have done in recent years.» In addition to France’s credibility, it would therefore be above all its capacity to emit and carry new ideas into the international arena which would be affected. The beginning of a “silent wait”, to which Emmanuel Macron would have a thousand difficulties getting used to.
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