To mark the thousand days of a war triggered by the failed Russian invasion of February 24, 2022, Ukraine struck Russian territory on Tuesday with American long-range ATACMS missiles, targeting military targets in the border region from Bryansk. And this, less than two days after outgoing American President Joe Biden gave the green light to such use, until then an impassable line for this ally of Kyiv keen to avoid an escalation.
Moscow immediately showed its teeth: Sergei Lavrov, the head of Russian diplomacy, estimated that these shots marked “a new phase of the Western war against Russia and we will react accordingly”. In September, Vladimir Putin had already warned that in such a case, this would mean that “NATO [serait] at war with Russia. To drive the point home, the master of the Kremlin signed the decree formalizing the new Russian nuclear doctrine which broadens the possibility of using atomic weapons in the event of an attack.massive» by a non-nuclear country, but supported by a nuclear power, which targets the United States, but also France and the United Kingdom.
Internationalization of the conflict
This nuclear threat is not new: since February 2022, it has accompanied each abandonment by Kyiv's allies of the red lines that they themselves set (deliveries of tanks, combat planes, long-range missiles , etc.). But this time, the escalation was desired by the Kremlin which, faced with a real human bloodletting (more than 700,000 dead or injured according to the British general staff), called on North Korean troops: currently, more than 10,000 soldiers of this red dictatorship are massed on the Ukrainian border and, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who spoke Tuesday morning before the European Parliament meeting in extraordinary session to hear him, they could soon be “more than 100,000”. An internationalization of the conflict which explains the lifting of the last restrictions on the use of Western weapons in order to allow the Ukrainian army to fight without having one arm tied behind its back. Because, this time, it is no longer just a question of arms deliveries, but of the intervention of foreign soldiers on the ground, which could not be done without the agreement of China, the godfather of the Pyongyang regime ( read pXXX). According to European diplomats, this new “axis of evil” (Russia-China-North Korea-Belarus-Iran) wants to both take advantage of the wavering American interregnum and test the will of Europeans to continue to help the Ukraine in the event of American failure.
The Europeans therefore wanted to immediately deny the insistent rumors about a supposed “war fatigue”notably following the solitary initiative of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who called Vladimir Putin to convince him, in vain, to accept peace talks (read pXX). This weariness “exists, we cannot deny it, but even painfully, the Europeans continue to dig the furrow opened in February 2022”analyzes Sylvain Kahn, professor at Sciences-Po and author of Europe versus Ukraine (PUF, 2024). Thus, on Tuesday, the main political groups in the European Parliament gave unconditional support to Volodymyr Zelensky who pleaded against any temptation to abandon his country. “Let us remind those in Europe who think they can sell Ukraine or any other country of this simple truth,” to buy peace, he told European parliamentarians. “No one can claim to sail in calm waters while the storm rages all around.”
The most striking speech was that of the head of the EPP (European conservatives, first group in Parliament), the German Manfred Weber, member of the German CDU-CSU who should win the early elections in Germany scheduled for February 2025. We must allow Ukraine “to conquer on the battlefield”, in particular by authorizing it to strike Russian territory with European weapons. He notably pleaded, like the head of the German CDU, Friedrich Merz, for Berlin to deliver long-range Taurus missiles which would make it possible to destroy the Kerch bridge linking Crimea to Russia, which the social democrat Olaf Scholz always refuses to please his pacifist left wing.
Trump, the elephant in the middle of the room
At the same time, the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland recalled that it was not only the fate of Kyiv that was at stake, but “our common security [qui] is being called into question like never before in our lifetimes,” a way of linking the destiny of Ukraine and the Union. In particular, they committed to using “all the levers at our disposal, including the economic and financial power of the Union”in particular by using “innovative financing” to support the European defense effort. What the Pole Radoslaw Sikorski and the Italian Antonio Tajani translated a little too quickly into a green light given to a European loan on the model of the post-Covid recovery fund. “We are not there yet, but Germany has not blocked the reference to innovative financing, which is new,” rejoices a European diplomat who attended the meeting. “Everyone agreed to give Ukraine the means to be in the best possible position for negotiations to take place when it decides.”
Still, the elephant in the middle of the room is Donald Trump, the future American president, who we fear will leave the Union alone against Russia. “First, there are two months left to authorize Kyiv to bombard Russian soil with our missiles”souligne Sylvain Kahn. “But above all, he continueswe don't know anything about what this unpredictable president will do. He only committed to ending the war in twenty-four hours without further details. And given the composition of his cabinet, there is something for everyone. We must not forget that it was Trump who deployed 40,000 GI's on NATO's eastern flank as well as Patriot anti-missile batteries. Above all, he knows that any sign of weakness in Ukraine will be interpreted as such by China, North Korea and Iran, which he considers to be his enemies.” The fate of Ukraine is therefore far from being sealed.
