1000 days ago, Russia launched its bombers, its tanks and its hatred on Ukraine, hoping to bring about the rapid capitulation of kyiv; 1000 days later, Ukraine is still standing, but greatly weakened and bruised. At a time when there are fewer and fewer volunteers to fight the enemy, Dimko Zhluktenko, 26, has decided to enlist and will leave for the front in December.
“The time has come for me to do my part in the fight and to show a positive example to follow to my friends who are still civilians,” he testifies to the Duty. But first, the young man wanted to marry his beloved. “She is now my wife,” he said proudly. “There is no one here who is not afraid of war. »
Russia is currently accelerating its advances in eastern Ukraine. Since the beginning of November, Vladimir Putin’s troops have conquered approximately 458 km2 of territory. “Russian forces are carrying out two simultaneous and complementary offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk”, a logistical node that the Kremlin has been trying to conquer for eight months, indicates the Institute for the Study of War.
A takeover that would allow Russia to “create the conditions” to seize all of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. At the same time, the Russian army is strengthening its infantry and armored vehicle presence along the southern front, which suggests that it will soon attempt an advance in the Zaporizhia region — where Dimko will be deployed.
Russian drone salvos have also targeted the country’s energy infrastructure in recent days, portending a very cold winter for civilians in Ukraine.
With this intensification of strikes, Putin probably hopes to achieve a strategic breakthrough on the battlefield and in terms of the morale of the Ukrainians before the start of possible peace negotiations, promised by the next US president, Donald Trump.
“When you send a signal that you are ready for a compromise at the expense of Ukraine, it is an invitation to Putin to try to win more before possible negotiations,” analyzes Olexiy Haran, professor of comparative politics at the National University Mohyla Academy in kyiv.
Hit further
Perhaps to give Ukraine a last chance before these talks, the current president, Joe Biden, in recent hours authorized the country to strike Russia deeper into its territory using American ATACMS missiles, d ‘a range of almost 300 km.
Several of these missiles, supplied by the United States, have already been used by the Ukrainian army to hit targets on its territory — we therefore do not know how many can still be used. Similar authorization could be given for the British Storm Shadow missiles and the French SCALP, which contain American components. Moscow again warned the West on Monday that if kyiv took action, it would amount to “direct participation of the United States and its satellites” and that Moscow’s response “will be felt.”
This agreement on the use of long-range missiles appears to be limited only to striking the Kursk region — where some 10,000 North Korean troops have been deployed in recent weeks to push Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory. After months of procrastination on the part of the West, however, it would not be surprising if Russia moved its weapons and ammunition warehouses and its launching pads that Ukraine wanted to strike.
For Professor Haran, this new measure “is good, but late”. Dimko Zhluktenko, who will soon pilot drones on the front line to “find targets on Russian territory”, also believes that this is a step in the right direction, even if it is “too little, too much late “.
If Ukraine’s Western allies had provided a fraction of the weapons the country has today as early as 2022, the reality on the front line would be very different today, he believes. “ [Pendant ce temps]Russia’s allies are very fast, decisive and eager to show the West that they are competitive players in the global battlefield that is Ukraine,” he notes.
Let regions go?
On the verge of possible peace negotiations, several hypotheses are circulating about what could be part of a compromise. We know that Russia covets the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, which the Duma annexed to Russia, in contravention of international law, in October 2022.
The Kremlin also demands that the Ukrainian army be limited to 50,000 men, that Ukraine abandon its plan to join NATO and reinstate the teaching of Russian in schools.
According to a poll carried out at the beginning of October by the International Institute of Sociology in kyiv, 58% of Ukrainians remain opposed to any territorial concession that could be made to Russia, while 32% of respondents accept this possibility (this proportion was 10% at the start of the war).
For Professor Haran, however, it is clear that such concessions would be “very bad” for Ukraine, and for the whole world, since they would “create a precedent”. “If the West accepts this, it sends a signal that any country — like Iran or China — can do it [envahir militairement un territoire pour le conquérir]. »
Dimko, however, sees the situation differently, believing that “it would not be a bad deal” if the front line were frozen in its current position. “At this moment, with the resources we have, and especially with insufficient ammunition, it is not possible to recover these cities [tombées sous le joug russe]. For me, Ukraine would be victorious if it remains a sovereign nation, without kyiv being captured. »
The two men, however, agree to demand solid security guarantees to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine again in the future. A thousand days after the start of the war, the vast majority of Ukrainians are more than convinced “that it is impossible to have relations with Russia,” thunders Professor Haran.
But until Putin, Zelensky, Trump and European leaders ask their emissaries to sit around the same table, it is a safe bet that the fighting will intensify on the ground. Since what will be on the negotiating table is currently being debated on the battlefield.
