Why the US decision to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles in Russia should not change the balance of power

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his visit to the 25th separate airborne brigade in Pokrovsk (Ukraine), November 18, 2024. HANDOUT / AFP

After months of refusal, American President Joe Biden ended up authorizing Ukraine, on Sunday, November 17, to carry out deep strikes in Russia with ballistic missiles supplied by the United States, as kyiv had long demanded. date. A major strategic turnaround a few weeks before Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20, 2025.

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The American decision, taken in reaction to the involvement of North Korean soldiers in the conflict, is considered both too late and too restrictive. More political than military, it could help slow down the Russian advance, without changing the balance of power on the ground.

Moscow denounced, Monday November 18, a decision “reckless, dangerous”, and accused the Biden administration of “to throw fuel on the fire”. The Chairman of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, threatened to use new weapons systems against Ukraine if it were to attack his territory with long-range American missiles. Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), both precise and very powerful, can reach a target up to 300 kilometers away.

Mixture of joy and bitterness

The American decision comes at a time when Russia is pushing its advantage on the front line, seizing territories in the east of the country at a speed not seen in two years. The Kremlin is also increasing the pressure on the population behind it, by carrying out a series of deadly strikes.

A thousand days after the start of the Russian invasion, it was with a mixture of joy and bitterness that Washington’s announcement was received in Ukraine. “Better late than never, reacted Ukrainian military expert Ievhen Dyky, in an interview with Ukrainian media NV. But it’s a thousand days later than it should have been. » For this army veteran, if the decision to lift restrictions had been made earlier, “It would have had a completely different effect.”

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Before Washington announced its decision, Russia had time to take precautions and moved part of its installations and equipment further inside its territory to put them out of range of American missiles. However, it remains “warehouses and command posts [à portée de frappes]nuance Ievhen Dyky. We cannot remove them all, nor hide them all. »

The Pentagon warned, as early as September, that ATACMS missiles would not be able to respond to the main threat facing Ukraine, namely the hovering bombs fired by the Russians more than 300 kilometers away, beyond the range of ATACMS.

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