While the war in Ukraine began 1,000 days ago this Tuesday, November 19, Volodymyr Zelensky said he hoped to end the conflict in 2025 by “diplomatic means”. Russia nevertheless carried out a “massive attack” on Sunday in Ukraine, while Washington gave the green light to kyiv for the use of long-range missiles.
A symbolic milestone passed between the risk of further escalation and hopes of negotiations. While the war in Ukraine began just 1,000 days ago this Tuesday, November 19, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has seen numerous developments in recent days: from the resumption of discussions between the German chancellor and the president Russian, to the authorization by the United States for Ukraine to use long-range missiles in Russia.
Started on February 22, 2022, almost 33 months ago, the conflict is bogged down. The situation for the Ukrainian army remains difficult, as volunteers for the army are lacking and Russian soldiers advance in the East.
On Sunday, Russia carried out a “massive combined attack” on “all regions of Ukraine”, targeting in particular its “energy infrastructure” as winter approaches, as President Volodymyr Zelensky denounced.
Long-range missiles, a turning point?
But with the expected arrival in January of Donald Trump at the White House, he who had promised to end the war, and the recent declarations of Volodymyr Zelensky on a possible “diplomatic” solution to the conflict, the prospect of negotiations in the next few months grows.
However, American President Joe Biden gave the green light to kyiv on Sunday evening for the use of American-made long-range missiles against Russia. A first and a decision which “pours fuel on the fire”, accused the Kremlin on Monday. These missiles with a range of 300 km represent valuable help for kyiv to enable it to attack Russia in depth.
What gives reason to fear a further escalation of the conflict in the coming months? Last September, Vladimir Putin warned the Americans about future deliveries of long-range missiles to Ukraine. This would change the very nature of the conflict, it would mean that the NATO countries and the United States are at war with Russia,” he warned.
Patrick Martin Genier, specialist in international issues and teacher at Sciences Po, however, tempers his comments. “Putin always spoke of his famous red lines and in the end as soon as Ukraine or NATO was able to move forward, he always retreated,” he explains to BFMTV.
For Guillaume Ancel, Vladimir Putin considers in any case that Europe is already at war with Russia. “It won’t change anything,” he judges. “When (Putin) dares to bring foreign soldiers and when he warns that he would refuse the involvement of other nations, we can clearly see that he constantly plays with our nerves,” explains the former soldier, referring to the presence of North Korean soldiers on the front.
“Joe Biden speaks the only language that Putin understands, that is to say force,” summarizes Guillaume Ancel.
This decision by Joe Biden is nevertheless “a real surprise”, underlines Ulysse Gosset, international columnist for BFMTV, the Ukrainians having started to request these long-range missiles in September 2022.
“This is a turning point,” he believes, “because with these weapons, the Ukrainians will be able to precisely strike not only the Russians, but also the North Korean soldiers who were engaged on the (Russian) front.
These missiles are also “available in hundreds of copies”, unlike other European missiles, so “we are changing scale” for Ukraine, adds Guillaume Ancel, former officer and war chronicler. These missiles should prove “interesting in particular in the Kursk region, where the pressure is extremely high,” adds Air Force General Patrick Dutartre to BFMTV.
Alexandre Quéry, however, qualifies the importance of these weapons. “These missiles do not change much in the face of a real problem facing the Ukrainian army which is that of mobilization”, but also the fact that “half of the American weapons have not been delivered and that the winter will be extremely harsh on the soldiers,” he judges.
“The question now is to know which other European missiles, notably the Scalps, the Storm Shadows and the Taurus, will follow in the footsteps of the United States,” notes Alexandre Quéry on Sunday. If Germany refuses to send its Taurus missiles, it announced on Monday the upcoming sending of 4,000 sophisticated drones to Ukraine.
“Biden plays his political posterity”
This strategic shift by the United States in the war in Ukraine comes as Donald Trump, who claimed during the campaign that he would end the war between kyiv and Moscow “in 24 hours”, won the American presidential election in early November.
“Joe Biden knows very well that he is playing for his political posterity today,” believes Patrick Martin Genier.
“He will have left the White House in two months, he wants to show that the Biden administration has gone to the limits of its possibilities” to support Ukraine as much as possible, says this specialist in international issues.
The return of Donald Trump, another turning point?
Expected to take charge at the White House from January 20, 2025, the imminent arrival of Donald Trump in power worries Ukraine. This has indeed benefited more than 60 billion dollars in military aid since the Russian invasion in February 2022.
Donald Trump facing the rest of the world
“We are at a pivotal period. What will the new administration of Donald Trump do? Will it give in to what Vladimir Putin wants?”, underlines General Jérôme Pellistrandi, Defense consultant for BFMTV.
Aware of the stakes, Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to congratulate the American on his victory at the beginning of November and to maintain that “the war will end sooner” under the presidency of Donald Trump. On Saturday, he also assured that he wanted to “do everything” to obtain an end to the war in his country in 2025 by “diplomatic means”, while he previously rejected possible negotiations with Vladimir Putin.
For Nicolas Tenzer, professor at Sciences Po, specialist in Ukraine and Russia, we must also see in this declaration “a message which is mainly addressed to Donald Trump”. A way of reaching out to the future president before he takes office, while the American president wants at all costs to keep his campaign promise and be able to say “I am the man who stopped the war”, according to Guillaume Ancel.
“Give Ukraine negotiating capacity”
On the ground, Vladimir Putin shows no signs that he is ready to stop the fighting. On Monday, a Russian strike left at least ten dead and dozens injured in Odessa.
As the Kremlin redoubles its efforts against Ukraine, President Joe Biden has decided to help kyiv as much as possible, while he still has the power, according to several experts. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said he was ready to use the six billion dollars to help kyiv by the end of Joe Biden's mandate.
“Biden understood very well that Trump was going to impose a negotiation,” judges Guillaume Ancel. And “he wants to allow the Ukrainians to get there with cards in hand.” “Putin will certainly want to play the role of exchanging Kursk for part of Dombass, that gives Ukraine a negotiating capacity,” Ulysse Gosset also agrees.
For Guillaume Ancel, negotiating a temporary cessation of fighting would also be of interest. “It is to Putin's advantage if he can say: 'I have a first victory' (…) and that, moreover, he, during this time, can take advantage of these years to reconstitute everything that he needs to restart this war,” judges Guillaume Ancel.
Especially since, whatever Trump's promises, the coming months look uncertain for kyiv. “The Trump administration is unpredictable, you have to expect everything,” recalls our columnist Ulysse Gosset.
