The market is now grappling with the potential impact of over 140,000 BTC expected to flood the market in less than a month. To put this in perspective, this figure is slightly lower than the immediate liquidation of Fidelity’s Bitcoin spot ETF, which currently holds 167,375 BTC.
But Alex Thorn, director of research at Galaxy, believes the market may be exaggerating this effect. “We believe that fewer coins will be distributed than people think, resulting in less BTC selling pressure than the market expects,” Thorn said.
According to Thorn’s research, 75% of creditors are expected to receive their payment “early” in July, which equates to a distribution of approximately 95,000 coins. Thorn estimates that 65,000 coins will be paid to individual creditors. Thorn suggests that these creditors may be more resilient in terms of sales than most think. Given that Bitcoin has risen 140 times since the crash, not to mention capital gains taxes, they have already resisted “compelling and aggressive offers from on-demand funds” for years.
When it comes to on-demand funds, Thorn suggests that most of the partners in these funds are high-net-worth individuals looking to increase their Bitcoin holdings at a discount, rather than arbitrageurs looking for a quick, profitable transaction. This could further reduce selling pressure in the market.
As a result, according to analysts, Mt. Although Gox’s BTC comeback may initially seem like a threat to the market, the actual impact may be less than expected.
*This does not constitute investment advice.
