Does Kamala Harris owe her defeat to her support for Israel?

Decryption The day after the election of Donald Trump, Kamala Harris is attacked on her left for her posture of unconditional support for Israel, which would have caused her to lose precious votes in the young and Arab-Muslim electorate.

“The USA could not choose the left, there was none. » On The leader of the rebels and his camp are held responsible “softness” of the social democrats, deemed ineffective against “a right-wing extreme right”particularly on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

What raises a question: Kamala Harris’s refusal to distinguish herself from Joe Bien on has the United States’ support for Israel in its military operation in the Gaza Strip caused her to lose votes in the Muslim electorate and young? To the point of costing him the election?

Tensions on the left

Even before November 5, tension was already rising on the left on the other side of the Atlantic. The embodiment of the small presidential candidates, Jill Stein of the Green Party refused to withdraw from the race for the White House following the request of the European Greens worried about an election that the forecasts predicted would be very close.

As justification, the one who obtained a little more than 660,000 votes nationally (i.e. 0.5%) responded to the Greens of “stop supporting genocide in Gaza and stifling democracy in US elections.”

The Israeli-Palestinian question divided even within the blue camp. Known for her constant denunciations of the diplomatic and military support of the Biden-Harris administration since the start of the war in Israel in October 2023, elected Democrat Rashida Tlaib refused to support the latter’s candidacy.

Re-elected in Michigan to the House of Representatives, the politician of Palestinian origin shared on would be more likely to vote for Harris in the three swing states of Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona if she supported cutting off arms supplies to Israeli forces.

The “Arab capital of America” votes for Trump

In the pivotal state of Michigan, another Democratic voice is particularly critical of the American position and of Kamala Harris on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This is Abdullah Hammoud, who in 2022 became the first Arab and Muslim mayor of Dearborn.

This city, a suburb of Detroit, has the distinction of being the largest locality with an Arab majority in the United States, where more than half of the 110,000 inhabitants say they come from the Middle East or North Africa according to a 2020 census.

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So it was no surprise when the results announced Donald Trump as the winner at 42%, in this “Arab capital of America” yet won handily by Joe Biden (69%) four years earlier. “Votes are never promised to a party or candidate, especially from a community directly affected by genocide”says Abdullah Hammoud in reaction on X.

On October 30, still in Dearborn during its annual banquet, the Arab American Political Action Committee (AAPAC) confirmed its refusal to support Kamala Harris, regardless of the consequences for this undecided state and its 15 electoral votes that Trump will ultimately win. .

A “Franco-French” analysis

Despite these criticisms, it is difficult to estimate to what extent the Palestinian question has really influenced the electorate of young people and Muslims. If 18-29 year olds placed Kamala Harris 13 points ahead of Donald Trump, while Joe Biden was ahead of the Republican by 24 points in 2020, the general crumbling of traditional Democratic bases suggests that Gaza is not the only variable .

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As for the experts, caution is required. “This analysis is very Franco-French. If Kamala Harris clearly lost votes in a few counties, the gap was such at the national level that that’s not what caused her to lose.explains to “New Obs” Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam, lecturer in American civilization and head of the Politics and International Relations program at the University of Tours.

“Reducing the American Arab-Muslim population to the Palestinian question also seems problematic to me”she adds, recalling that this electorate, which represents only 1% of the population across the Atlantic, is quite conservative, particularly on abortion. “For young people, they are not the ones who vote the most anyway. Once again, that’s not what caused him to lose. »

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For her, the main part of Kamala Harris’ failure is the economy and inflation. “At no time did she address the people and their difficulties”hammer Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam.

Same story for Jean-Baptiste Velut, professor of American politics at the Sorbonne-Nouvelle: “Kamala Harris was unable, unable to distance herself from Joe Biden in three months of campaigning but above all failed to connect with the working class. » A situation which is reminiscent of the formula « It’s the economy, stupid » by James Carville, one of the great campaigners, who predicted the victory… of Kamala Harris.