The Spanish company Deoleo, the world’s largest producer of olive oil, said on Saturday November 16, 2024 that one of the most difficult periods in the history of the industry is coming to an end. Because she expects the price of olive oil to drop by almost half from last year’s peak in the coming months.
Extreme weather conditions and drought that have hit Mediterranean Europe for extended periods in recent years have seriously affected the olive harvest, leading to a dizzying rise in prices that has shocked producers and consumers.
Shortages of olive oil, which is the main superfood of the Mediterranean diet, have led to a crisis for olive producers. They have also sparked fears of food insecurity and even caused massive thefts of olive oil in Spanish supermarkets.
Since then, however, prices have started to fall as estimates point to a marked improvement in harvests in 2024-2025. And this, in particular in the main producing countries such as Spain, Greece and Tunisia.
“Although steps have been taken to improve the situation, it would not be entirely accurate to say that the crisis is over.” This was stated to CNBC Miguel Angel Guzman, sales manager at Deoleo.
“We are still going through a phase of tension in olive oil prices, especially for higher quality oils like extra virgin oils,” added Mr. Guzman. While emphasizing that there is still some uncertainty in the market before the 2024-2025 olive harvest.
“However, the outlook is positive for the coming months as the market is expected to begin to stabilize and return to normal. And this, as the new harvest progresses and supply increases,” he concluded.
Deoleo, which produces major brands of domestic olive oil in Spain such as Bertolli and Carbonell, described conditions over the past two years as a “perfect storm of challenges” and “one of the most difficult periods of the ‘history of the industry’ and called for its ‘profound transformation’.
“The decline in prices is expected to begin between November, December and January, provided that weather conditions and harvests remain stable in the coming weeks,” Guzman said.
“Everything indicates that if all goes well, especially if the rains continue to favor production, we could see a downward trend in prices throughout 2025,” he added.
Deoleo said olive oil prices would fall to around 5 euros per liter, a sharp drop from the highs of 9 to 10 euros that had become the norm in Spanish supermarkets in 2024.
“This price would be reasonable in a context of increased production. This would ease market tensions and facilitate the gradual normalization of prices after a period characterized by volatility,” concluded Mr. Guzman.
